The challenges of a rising China

Abstract

This article examines the changing nature of the China challenge and the global response to a rising China. As its comprehensive national strength grows, China poses broader challenges and provides greater opportunities for the global community. One influential school of thinking – offensive realism – suggests that the rise of a great power will lead to new and tragic conflicts. After examining contending perspectives on the China challenge, however, we find that there is persuasive evidence and strong logic to support alternative conceptions of the future. Tragedy is not inevitable. In fact, ‘managed great power relations’ can be a viable alternative to the tragic scenario. If major powers take great care to develop and manage their truly interdependent relations, mutual gains from cooperation will far exceed the costs of conflict. There are powerful incentives for cooperation and strong deterrence against conflict. As China's power has grown, Beijing's relations with major powers around the world have improved rather than deteriorated. In meeting the China challenge, cautious optimism can be justified. China's major challenges may predominantly come from inside, rather than outside. For neighbors and other great powers, the approaches they select to meet the China challenge will have great impact on not only their relations with China but also the strategic balance of the future world.

Key words:

• Rising China
• Contending Perspectives
• Major Powers

Notes

¹See Kenneth N. Waltz, ‘Structural Realism after the Cold War’, in G. John Ikenberry (ed.), America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2002), 56, 62.

³Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 4.

²See John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton 2001), 2.

⁴Ibid., 386.

⁵Ibid., 401.

⁶It seems that Mearsheimer fails to appreciate the interdependent nature of the US and Chinese economies. The fact of the matter is that any slowdown in the Chinese economy will harm the US economy. See, for example, Dale Copeland, ‘Economic Interdependence and the Future of US-Chinese Relations’, in G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastanduno (eds.), International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (New York: Columbia UP 2003), 323–52.

⁷For contending views on the rise of China from a wide range of countries, see Herbert Yee and Ian Storey (eds.), The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality (New York: RoutledgeCurzon 2002).

⁸See Zbigniew Brzezinski, ‘Make Money, Not War’, Foreign Policy 146 (Jan.–Feb. 2005), 46. This issue of Foreign Policy contains the debate, ‘Clash of the Titans’. It examines critical questions such as, “Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will the United States seek to contain China as it once contained the Soviet Union?” Brzezinski and John Mearsheimer go head-to-head on whether China and the United States are destined to fight it out. For more in depth analysis of the strategic situation in East Asia with a focus on China, see Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership (New York: Basic Books 2004), 107–23.

⁹See ‘Universal Values, Specific Policies – A Conversation with Henry Kissinger’, The National Interest (Summer 2006), 14.

¹⁰See David M. Lampton, ‘The Faces of Chinese Power’, Foreign Affairs (Jan.–Feb. 2007), 117–18.

¹¹See ‘Party General Secretary Hu: Building a democratic, law-based and harmonious society’, China News Service, 19 Feb. 2005; and ‘Hu Jintao: We must implement the view of scientific development in solving China's development problems’, Xinhua News, 6 May 2004.

¹²For further elaboration of power transition theory, see Goldstein's article in this issue; see also Ronald L. Tammen et al., Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (New York: Chatham House 2000).

¹³See Andrew Scobell and Larry M. Wortzel (eds.), China's Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute 2002). Available at <www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=59>.

¹⁴For an insightful analysis of diplomatic challenges, see Paul Gordon Lauren, Gordon A. Craig, and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Challenges of Our Time, 4th edition (New York: OUP 2007).

¹⁵See Mark J.C. Crescenzi, Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books 2005).

¹⁶See ‘Wu Yi and Paulson co-chair the first Sino-American strategic economic dialogue’, Renmin Ribao, 15 Dec. 2006.

¹⁷See David Shambaugh, Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems and Prospects (Berkeley: Univ. of California Press 2003); and Kevin Pollpeter, US-China Security Management: Assessing the Military-to-Military Relationship (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp. 2004).

¹⁸See ‘China, US hold search-and-rescue exercise’, Xinhua News, 19 Nov. 2006, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-11/19/content_5349057.htm> (accessed 13 April 2007).

¹⁹For the declining status of Russian nuclear deterrence and vulnerability of Chinese nuclear deterrence, see Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, ‘The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of US Primacy’, International Security 30/4 (Spring 2006), 7–44.

²⁰See Kenneth Waltz's provocative yet convincing arguments in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: W.W. Norton 2003).

²¹See Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster 1996).

²²See Quansheng Zhao, ‘Moving Toward a Co-Management Approach: China's Policy Toward North Korea and Taiwan’, Asian Perspective 30/1 (2006), 39–78.

²³David Shambaugh, ‘Sino-American Relations since Sept. 11’, Current History (Sept. 2002), 243–9.

²⁴This is the conclusion of Mearsheimer's Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 401–2.

²⁵See Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security (Stanford UP 2005). For a theoretical and empirical analysis of Chinese foreign policy, see Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (eds.), New Directions in the Study of China's Foreign Policy (Stanford UP 2006).

²⁶For contending views on the rise of China, see Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge; C. Fred Bergsten, Bates Gill, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Derek Mitchell, China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower (New York: Public Affairs 2006); Robert G. Sutter, China's Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield 2005); Samuel S. Kim, ‘China's Path to Great Power Status in the Globalization Era’, Asian Perspective 27/1 (2003), 35–75; Michael Brown et al. (eds.), The Rise of China (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 2000); and Gordon G. Chang, The Coming Collapse of China (New York: Random House 2001). For Chinese views, see Peng Peng (ed.), Heping Jueqi lun[Peaceful Rising Theory: The Path of China Becoming a Great Power], (Guangzhou: Guangdong renmin chubanshe 2005), and Yan Xuetong and Sun Xuefeng, Zhongguo Jueqi jiqi Zhanlue[The Rise of China and Its Strategy], (Beijing: Peking UP 2005).

²⁷See Joseph S. Nye, ‘China's Re-emergence and the Future of the Asia-Pacific’, Survival 39 (1997–98), 65–79. Historian Jonathan Spence also prefers to call China's recent development a ‘reemergence’. In a series of essays published in Foreign Policy (Jan.–Feb. 2005), 44–58, Spence, Martin Wolf, Minxin Pei, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and John J. Mearsheimer discuss how China is changing the world. They debate whether the country is more interested in economic development than war, whether it can rise peacefully, and whether it needs to be ‘contained’.

²⁸For instance, both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao frequently talk about zhonghua minzu de weida fuxing[great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation].

²⁹For excellent analysis of the Chinese economy, see Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 2007); and Gregory C. Chow, China's Economic Transformation, 2nd edition (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing 2007).

³⁰See World Bank, ‘China: Data and Statistics: Quick Facts’, available at <www.worldbank.org/cn> (accessed 7 Dec. 2005).

³¹For various perspectives on this issue, see Guoli Liu (ed.), Chinese Foreign Policy in Transition (New York: Aldine de Gruyter 2004).

³²According to Confucius (551–479 BC), achieving peace and harmony is the most valuable function of observing ritual propriety. See The Analects of Confucius: A Philosophical Translation , trans. with an introduction, by Roger T. Ames and Henry Rosemont Jr (New York: Ballantine Books 1998), 74. For Daoism, see Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching[The Way of Power, 4th century BC], trans. by Arthur Waley (Ware, UK: Wordsworth 1997). For a critical analysis of Legalism, see Zhengyuan Fu, China's Legalists: The Earliest Totalitarians and Their Art of Ruling (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe 1996).

³³See Zheng Bijian, ‘China's Peaceful Rise and Opportunity for the Asia-Pacific Region’, Roundtable Meeting between the Boao Forum for Asia and the China Reform Forum (18 April 2004), <www.brook.edu/fp/events/20050616bijianlunch.pdf>.

³⁴See John L. Thornton, ‘China's Leadership Gap’, Foreign Affairs 85/6 (Nov./Dec. 2006).

³⁵See Zheng Bijian, ‘China's Development and Her New Path to a Peaceful Rise’, Speech at the Villa d'Este Forum (Sept. 2004), <www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/FP/events/20050616bijianlunch.pdf>.

³⁶See Elizabeth C. Economy, The River Runs Black (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2004); and Jim Yardley, ‘Rivers Run Black, and Chinese Die of Cancer’, New York Times, 12 Sept. 2004, A1, 8.

³⁷See Elizabeth Economy, ‘China's Environmental Challenge’, Current History (Sept. 2005), 278–83.

³⁸See Shaoguang Wang, ‘Openness and Inequality: The Case of China’, Issues and Studies (Dec. 2003), 39–80.

³⁹See China Statistical Yearbook 2004 (Beijing: China Statistics Press 2004).

⁴⁰See Willy Wo-Lap Lam, Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era: New Leaders, New Challenges (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe 2006).

⁴¹See Mary E. Gallagher, ‘China in 2004: Stability above All’, Asian Survey 45/1 (2005), 28.

⁴²See Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers (New York: Vintage Books 1987).

⁴³See Robert B. Zoellick, ‘Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?’ Remarks to National Committee on US-China Relations, New York City, 21 Sept. 2005, <www.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm> (accessed 5 April 2007).

⁴⁴See Quansheng Zhao, ‘The Shift in Power Distribution of Change of Major Power Relations‘, in Quansheng Zhao (ed.), Future Trends in East Asian International Relations (London/Portland, OR: Frank Cass 2002), 49–78.

⁴⁵For an in-depth analysis on East Asian history, see Warren I. Cohen, East Asia at the Center: Four Thousand Years of Engagement with the World (New York: Columbia UP 2000).

⁴⁶For an interesting study of China-Russian relations, see Jeanne L. Wilson, Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the Post-Soviet Era (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe 2004).

⁴⁷For a detailed analysis of Beijing's cross-Strait policy, see Quansheng Zhao, ‘Beijing's Dilemma with Taiwan: War or Peace?’Pacific Review 18/2 (June 2005), 217–40.

⁴⁸See ‘Trade between the Mainland and Taiwan hits US$100 billion mark’, Renmin Ribao[People's Daily], 18 Jan. 2007.

⁴⁹See ‘UN Security Council passed resolution putting sanctions on Iran’, Renmin Ribao, 25 Dec. 2006. China consistently supports the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and hopes to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis by peaceful means.

⁵⁰See ‘A qualitative leap of Sino-African relations’ and the special report on the Beijing Summit on China-Africa Cooperation, Renmin Ribao, 5 Nov. 2006. For Hu's African trip, see ‘Chinese President leaves Beijing to visit 8 African nations’, Xinhua, 30 Jan. 2007, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/30/content_5673058.htm> (accessed 13 April 2007).

⁵¹See Yan Sun, Corruption and Market in Contemporary China (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2004); and Kevin O'Brien and Lianjiang Li, Rightful Resistance in Rural China (Cambridge: CUP 2006).

⁵²See Bergsten, Gill, Lardy, and Mitchell, China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower; for political challenges, see Lowell Dittmer and Guoli Liu (eds.), China's Deep Reform: Domestic Politics in Transition (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield 2006).