Pakistan's Relations with Central Asia: Is Past Prologue?

Abstract

Throughout the 1990s Pakistan sought to cultivate ‘strategic depth’ throughout Iran, Afghanistan and the newly emergent Central Asian Republics while seeking to restrict Indian influence in the region. Chastened by its past failures, Pakistan now embraces more modest regional goals. Despite the diminution in objectives, several factors augur failure including Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan, which diminish the likelihood of a stable Afghanistan, and Pakistan's inability to pacify the various insurgencies roiling both Baluchistan and the Pashtun areas of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas as well as the Northwest Frontier Province.

Key Words:

• Pakistan–Central Asian relations
• Pakistan–Iran relations
• Pakistan–Afghanistan relations

Acknowledgements

This article was drafted while the author was a Senior Research Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), Center for Conflict and Terrorism. The author is now a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. This article reflects the personal views of the author and not those of USIP or RAND. The author is thankful for the inputs of Dr Shaun Gregory and those of the anonymous reviewer. All oversights, omissions and errors are the fault of the author.

Notes

¹Simon Scot Plummer, ‘Pakistan, Epicenter of Global Instability’, Telegraph.co.uk (27 Sept. 2007).

²Author interview with high-level Pakistani officials at the Embassy of Pakistan in Kabul, Aug. 2007.

³Juli A. MacDonald, ‘South Asia’, Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Reorientations, Internal Transitions, and Strategic Dynamics-C, Conference. Report, National Intelligence Council (Oct. 2000) <fas.org/irp/nic/central_asia.html>. For a solid Pakistani assessment of its interests, see Asma Shakir Khawaja, Pakistan and the ‘New Great Game’ (Islamabad Policy Research Institute, April 2003) <ipripak.org/papers/pakandnewgame.shtml>.

⁴Ross H. Munro, ‘Security Implications of the Competition for Influence Among Neighboring States: China, India, and Central Asia’, in Jed C. Snyder (ed.), After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia (Washington DC: National Defense UP 1999), 133; Jefferson E. Turner, ‘What's Driving India's and Pakistan's Interest in Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?’Strategic Insights 4/8 (Aug. 2005), <ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2005/Aug/turnerAug05.asp>.

⁵During the anti-Soviet jihad, Pakistan backed seven Pakistan-based militant groups, six of which were Pashtun dominated. Burhanuddin Rabbani's Tajik-dominated Jamiat-i-Islami was the only non-Pashtun group supported by Pakistan. See Barnett R. Rubin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System (New Haven, CT: Yale UP 2002), Ch. 4, 81–110.

⁶Aly Zaman, ‘India's Increased Involvement in Afghanistan and Central Asia: Implications for Pakistan’, IPRI Journal (Summer 2003), <ipripak.org/journal/summer2003/indiaincreased.shtml>.

⁷Chidanand Rajghatta and Kamal Siddiqui, ‘Pak cries foul over US revenge strike’, Indian Express (22 Aug. 1998), <indianexpress.com/res/web/pIe/ie/daily/19980822/23450784.html>.

⁸‘Reporters see wrecked Buddhas’, BBC News, 26 March 2001, <news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1242856.stm>.

⁹See Seth G. Jones, ‘Pakistan's Dangerous Game’, Survival 49/1 (Spring 2007), 15–32 and Frederic Grare, Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era. Carnegie Papers, No. 72. (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Oct. 2006).

¹⁰Fazl-ur-Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia’, in Iwashita Akihiro (ed.), Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia: Russia and Its Neighbors in Crisis (Sapporo, Hokkaido/Japan: Slavic Research Center 2007), 226, <src-h. slav.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/publish/no16_1_ses/contents.html>.

¹¹Shireen T. Hunter, ‘Religion, Politics, and Security in Central Asia’, SAIS Review 21/2 (Summer/Fall 2001), 81.

¹²Ahmed Rashid, ‘The Taliban: Exporting Terrorism’, Foreign Affairs 78/1 (Nov./Dec. 1999), 22–35; Dietrich Reetz, ‘Islamic Activism In Central Asia and the Pakistan Factor’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 23/1 (Fall 1999), 1–37; Hunter, ‘Religion, Politics, and Security in Central Asia’.

¹³‘Taliban resumes Afghan offensive as Iran gathers forces’, CNN Online, 12 Sept. 1998, <edition.cnn.com/WORLD/meast/9809/12/iran.afghanistan/index.html>.

¹⁴See Grare, Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era; Marvin Weinbaum. Afghanistan and its Neighbors: An Ever Dangerous Neighborhood, USIP Special Report No. 162 (Washington DC: US Institute of Peace June 2006).

¹⁵For a review of Pakistan's position, see Noor ul Haq and Sadia Nasir, Pak-Afghan Relations (Islamabad Policy Research Institute Aug. 2003). See also ‘Afghan toll: Karzai lays blame’, CNN.Com, 19 May 2006, <cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/05/18/afghan.taliban/index.htm>l; Grare, Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era; Rizwan Zeb, ‘Cross Border Terrorism Issues Plaguing Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations’, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 4/2 (2006), 69–74.

¹⁶Seth G. Jones, ‘Pakistan's Dangerous Game’, Survival 49/1 (Spring 2007), 15–32.

¹⁷Pakistani officials interviewed by the author in Kabul in Aug. 2007 have used extremely pejorative language to describe Aslam Beg's once-praised approach to the region. Similarly, a high-ranking Pakistani army official visiting Washington in May 2007 also denigrated the concept.

¹⁸‘Musharraf rejects using Afghanistan as strategic depth in case of aggression: TV’, People's Daily Online, 20 May 2006, <english.peopledaily.com.cn/200605/20/eng20060520_267145.html>.

¹⁹Adnan Sarwar Khan, ‘Pakistan's Foreign Policy in the Changing International Scenario’, Muslim World, 96 (April 2006), 241.

²⁰Zaman, ‘India's Increased Involvement in Afghanistan and Central Asia’.

²¹Daniel P. Sullivan, ‘Tinder, Spark, Oxygen, and Fuel: The Mysterious Rise of the Taliban’, Journal of Peace Research 44/ 1 (2007), 93–108; Barnett Rubin, ‘Afghanistan Under the Taliban’, Current History 98/625 (Feb. 1999), 79–91.

²²ul Haq and Nasir, Pak-Afghan Relations.

²³See Government of India, Ministry of External Affairs, ‘Rebuilding Afghanistan: India at Work’, CD provided to the author by the Embassy of India, Kabul.

²⁴For a list of Indian consulates in Afghanistan in addition to the embassy see <meaindia.nic.in/cgi-bin/db2www/meaxpsite/indmission.d2w/Generals>.

²⁵Scott Baldauf, ‘India-Pakistan Rivalry Reaches into Afghanistan’, Christian Science Monitor, 12 Sept. 2003), cited in Grare, Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era, 12.

²⁶Gaurang Bhatt, ‘“RAW Is Training 600 Baluchis in Afghanistan”: Mushahid Hussain’, boloji.com, 14 May 2006, <www.boloji.com/analysis2/0116.htm>.

²⁷Stephen Blank, ‘India: The New Central Asian Player’, Eurasia Insight, 26 June 2006, <eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav062606a.shtml>; Stephen Blank, ‘India's Rising Profile in Central Asia’, Comparative Strategy 22/2 (April/May/June 2003), 139–57.

²⁸Declan Walsh, ‘As Taliban insurgency gains strength and sophistication, suspicion falls on Pakistan’, The Guardian, 13 Nov. 2006), <www.guardian.co.uk/afghanistan/story/0,,1946279,00.html>.

²⁹Pakistanis claim that there are in fact ‘more than 300 Indian commandos’ in Afghanistan. Indian interlocutors claim that there are several hundred personnel from the paramilitary outfit, the Indo-Tibetan Police Force (ITPF). They argue that the ITPF is perfectly suited for this task given that it routinely works in challenging security areas at altitude. Interviews with high-level Pakistani embassy officials in Kabul in Aug. 2007 and with high-level embassy officials at the Indian Embassy in Kabul in Aug. 2007.

³⁰Estimates of Pakistan's Shia population vary wildly because areas that are traditionally heavily populated with Shia (e.g. Pakistan's Northern Areas) are not enumerated in its census. Thus estimates range anywhere from 10 to 25 percent.

³¹India has maintained a presence at the Ayni airbase since 2002 and has spent some $1.77 million (est.) to upgrade the facility. In 2006, there were media reports that India was about to deploy as many as 12 MiG fighter-bombers at Ayni, which would have marked the first time that India stationed such assets beyond its own territory. The deployment was delayed due to problems with the planned upgrade. The base was unable to support the aircraft until mid-2007 when renovations were finished, some two years behind schedule. Initially, Russia supported India's foothold in Central Asia. Recently, it seems that Moscowa has cooled to the idea. Analysts have pointed to the expanding nature of US–Indian relations as the motive for the Kremlin's shift in policy. At the time of writing, it is unclear what will happen to India's presence in Tajikistan. See Stephen Blank, ‘Russian-Indian Row Over Tajik Base Suggests Moscow Caught in Diplomatic Vicious Cycle’, EurasiaNet Insight, 11 Jan. 2008, <www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav011108f.shtml>; Swapna Kona, ‘India in Central Asia: The Farkhor Airbase in Tajikitsan’, ICPS Article No. 2347, 4 Aug. 2007, <www.ipcs.org/whatsNewArticle11.jsp?action=showView&kValue=2363&status=article&mod=b>.

³²C. Christine Fair. ‘India and Iran: New Delhi's Balancing Act’, Washington Quarterly 30/3 (Summer 2007).

³³Calculations derived from percentage of Muslims in India and Pakistan and their total populations. These data elements are taken from the US Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook 2007 (last updated Sept. 2007), <cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook>.

³⁴Shah Alam, ‘Iran-Pakistan Relations: Political and Strategic Dimensions’, Strategic Analysis 28/4 (Oct.–Dec. 2004), 526–44.

³⁵Hamid Gul, ‘ECO, Strategic Significance in the Context of Islamic Resurgence and Geopolitical Environment', in Tarik Jan et al. (ed.), Foreign Policy Debate: The Years Ahead (Islamabad: Institute of Policy Studies: Islamabad 1993), 188–9.

³⁶Khan, ‘Pakistan's Foreign Policy in the Changing International Scenario;’ Tahir Amin, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian States’, in Ali Banuazizi and Myron Weiner (eds.), The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and its Borderlands (Bloomington: Indiana UP 1994); Dianne L. Smith, Central Asia: A New Great Game? (Washington DC: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College 1996); Turner, ‘What's Driving India's and Pakistan's Interest’.

³⁷Ibid.

³⁸See Alyson J. K. Bailes, Pal Dunay, Pan Guang and Mikhail Troitskiy, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SIPRI Policy Paper No. 71 (Stockholm: SIPRI May 2007); Rajan Menon, ‘The New Great Game in Central Asia’, Survival 45/2 (Summer 2003), 198; Hunter, ‘Religion, Politics, and Security in Central Asia’. Also see ‘The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’, <www.sectsco.org>.

³⁹Joshua Kucera, ‘Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summiteers Take Shot at US Presence in Central Asia’, Eurasia Insight, 20 Aug. 2007, <eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav082007a_pr.shtml>.

⁴⁰Kucera, ‘Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summiteers.'

⁴¹For information about the conflict between the Ahmedzai Wazir militant commander Mullah Nazir who led the charge against Uzbeks under the leadership of IMU commander Qari Tahir Yuldashev, see M. Ilyas Khan, ‘Pakistan's tribals - who is killing who?’, BBC Online, 5 April 2007, <news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6529147.stm>. According to interlocutors in Pakistan interviewed in Aug. 2007, the Ahmedzai Wazir tribesmen were ‘assisted’ by Pakistani military personnel who were called ‘Punjabi tribesmen’, casting aspersions upon Pakistan's official line that the uprising was a spontaneous effort of Pakistani tribesmen to rout foreign terrorists seeking refuge in the Waziristan. For information on the Karimov visit, see Gulnoza Saidazimova, ‘Uzbekistan: President Karimov Courts Pakistan To Boost Security, Trade’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 3 May 2006, <rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/05/4b240d75-0485-49e1-83a3-91e29be566cd.html>. While the Uzbeks are still operating in Pakistan, the Pakistani government has bee keen to eliminate them wherever possible. This is at least in part because Islamabad views them as ‘Al-Qa'eda’ and responsible for some of the more outrageous developments in FATA and in Baluchistan. For example, they are believed to have initiated the gruesome practice of beheading and they are believed to be behind the killing of several Chinese in Baluchistan.

⁴²Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia’.

⁴³See Ziad Haider, ‘Baluchis, Beijing, and Pakistan's Gwadar Port’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (Winter/Spring 2005), 95–103.

⁴⁴Haider, ‘Baluchis, Beijing, and Pakistan's Gwadar Port'; Frederic Grare, Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism. Carnegie Paper No. 65 (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Jan. 2006).

⁴⁵C. Christine Fair, The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with India and Pakistan (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 2004).

⁴⁶Marvin G. Weinbaum and Jonathan B. Harder, ‘Pakistan's Afghan Policies and Their Consequences’, Contemporary South Asia 17/2 (March 2008); Barnett Rubin and Abubakar Siddique, Resolving the Pakistan–Afghanistan Stalemate (Washington DC: US Institute of Peace 2006); Ashfaq Yusufzai, ‘Trade-Pakistan: Smugglers Profit From Landlocked Afghanistan’, IPSNews.net, 4 Aug. 2007, <ipsnews.net/news.asp? idnews=38794>.

⁴⁷Grare, Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era.

⁴⁸John Calabrese, ‘The Struggle for Security: New and Familiar Patterns in Iran-Pakistan Relations’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 21/1 (Fall 1997), 61–80; Hafeez Malik, ‘Iran's Relations with Pakistan’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 36/1 (Fall 2002), 56–71.

⁴⁹Shah Alam, ‘Iran-Pakistan Relations: Political and Strategic Dimensions’.

⁵⁰Vali R. Nasr, ‘International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and Identity Mobilization: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1998’, Comparative Politics 32/2 (Jan. 2000), 175–9, 183–7; International Crisis Group. The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan: Crisis Group Asia Report no. 95 (Brussels/Islamabad: International Crisis Group 2005), 12, 19–20.

⁵¹Amin Tarzi, ‘Afghanistan: What Unites The New “United Front”?’Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 10 May 2007, <rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/05/64ccc722-13eb-4f66-8c60-eb7785eb64bb.html>.

⁵²Fred Halliday, ‘Iran and the Middle East: Foreign Policy and Domestic Change’, Middle East Report, 220 (Autumn 2001), 44.

⁵³Fair, ‘India and Iran: New Delhi's Balancing Act’.

⁵⁴Ibid.

⁵⁵‘Pakistan-Iran preferential trade accord’, Daily Times, 3 March 2004, <dailytimes. com.pk/default.asp?page=story_28-3-2004_pg5_8>.

⁵⁶Haider, ‘Baluchis, Beijing, and Pakistan's Gwadar Port’, 96.

⁵⁷Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia’.

⁵⁸Cited by Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia’, 226.

⁵⁹Tahir Amin, ‘Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian States’, in Ali Banuazizi and Myron Weiner (eds.), The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and Its Borderlands (Bloomington: Indiana UP 1994), 221 cited by Turner, ‘What's Driving India's and Pakistan's Interest in Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?'.

⁶⁰Amin, ‘Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian States’, 222, cited by Turner, ‘What's Driving India's and Pakistan's Interest in Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?'.

⁶¹Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia’, 227.

⁶²Dianne L. Smith, Central Asia: A New Great Game?, cited by Turner, ‘What's Driving India's and Pakistan's Interest in Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?'.

⁶³Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia'.

⁶⁴For a recent example of such suspicion, see Jones, ‘Pakistan's Dangerous Game’.

⁶⁵Rahman, ‘Pakistan's Evolving Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia.'

⁶⁶Dan Millison (Asian Development Bank, South Asia Energy Division), ‘Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Natural Pipeline Project, Nov. 2006, <meaindia. nic.in/srec/internalpages/tapi.pdf>.

⁶⁷See Grare, Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era; Weinbaum. Afghanistan and its Neighbors.