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Notes
Member of the Defense Department's Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation. This paper was written while he was a Fellow at the UCLA Center for Arms Control and International Security.
The author would like to thank Richard Betts, Bernard Brodie, Robert Jervis, Klaus Knorr, Roman Kolkowicz, and Jeffrey Porro for their very helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article. While not incorporating all of their good advice, the paper has improved as a result of their inputs. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone, and are not necessarily representative of the views of the Defense Department's Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation.