Early prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time‐scales and remote sensing data: application in the Ebro Valley (north‐east Spain)

Abstract

This Letter shows the results of early crop prediction from combined use of AVHRR‐NDVI data and drought indices at different time‐scales. The study was carried out in an agricultural municipality located in the Middle Ebro valley, one of the most arid regions in Europe. The methodology proposed here has allowed the prediction of wheat and barley production in February, four months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models created have explained 88% and 82% of the temporal variability of wheat and barley production, respectively. This procedure could be very useful for managing crop production at a municipal level. Moreover, insurance companies could take advantage of the early prediction of crop losses, which are very frequent in this drought‐affected area.

Keywords:

• Crop prediction
• NDVI
• NOAA‐AVHRR
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• Mediterranean region
• Ebro valley

Acknowledgement

This work has been supported by projects: BSO2002‐02743 and REN2003‐07453 financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT) and FEDER and ‘Programa de grupos de investigación consolidados’ (grupo Clima, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales, BOA 48 of 20‐04‐2005), financed by the Aragón Government. The authors would like to thank Pascual Cano for the crop data used in this work. The research of the first author was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship of the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Spain).