Demography and transfer: Israel's road to nowhere

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, which dates back to the latter part of the nineteenth century, has always been a conflict over land and population balance. At the start of the twenty-first century, with no end in sight to the conflict, the issue of demography stares both sides in the face. Israel's ability to maintain military and economic superiority over neighbouring Arab countries in general and the Palestinians in particular is matched by its inability to maintain long-term numerical superiority in the areas it holds west of the Jordan River. It is expected that within 10 to 15 years there will be parity between the Arabs and the 5.5 million Jews who currently live in historical Palestine. While discussion of Arab population transfer has been relegated to internal debates among Zionist leaders, the idea itself has always remained a key element in Zionist thinking of ways to solve the demography problem and ensure Jewish population dominance. A recent decline in Jewish immigration to Israel, the rise of the religious-political right, continuing Jewish settlement in the West Bank and Gaza and the recent Palestinian uprising have moved this debate to the public arena. Fractions among Israel's intellectuals, political figures and Sharon government ministers have raised the demography issue publicly, calling openly for the transfer of the Palestinian population to Jordan.