Designing a secure Iraq: a US policy prescription

Abstract

The third Western attempt at regime construction in Iraq is now underway. Western plans to rebuild the Iraqi state will fail again if they ignore the real roots of Iraqi insecurity: its geopolitical weakness. The preoccupation with designing a new constitution ignores the historical evidence of the 1930s and 1950s that it is bound to fail. Surrounded by far larger powers such as Turkey and Iran, Iraq desperately needs long‐term commitments of arms and allies. While de‐garrisoning is a vital part of the regional peace puzzle, an insecure Iraq destabilises politics in Baghdad and fuels arms competitions. Thus the USA and UK must intercede on Iraq's behalf and help to resolve the long‐standing disputes over the unfair division of the Shatt al‐Arab with Iran, and access to sea arrangements with Kuwait. If Iraq is permitted to drift away a decade after reconstruction, its regime will again fall.

Notes

Julian Schofield is in the Department of Political Science, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada. Micah Zenko is a doctoral candidate at Brandeis University, USA. He can be contacted at 79 JFK Street, Littauer P‐12, Cambridge, MA 01238, USA. Email: [email protected].

O Bengio, ‘Pitfalls of instant democracy’, in M Eisenstadt & E Mathewson (eds), US Policy in Post‐Saddam Iraq, Washington, DC: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2003, pp 15–26.

N Lehman, ‘After Iraq: the plan to remake the Middle East’, The New Yorker, 17 February 2003, p 70; and A Frachon & D Vernet, ‘Le stratégie et le philosophe’, Le Monde, 16 April 2003.

I Lustick, ‘The absence of Middle Eastern great powers’, International Organization, 51 (4), 1997, pp 653–684.

Note that most assessments of postwar Iraq make little mention of Iraq's security position in the region. E Djerejian, F Wisner, R Bronson & A Weiss, Guiding Principles for US Post‐Conflict Policy in Iraq, Council on Foreign Relations, 2003; F Barton & B Crocker, A Wiser Peace: An Action Strategy For a Post‐Conflict Iraq, Washington, DC: Center for Security and International Strategy, 2003; P Marr, ‘Iraq “the day after”: internal dynamics in post‐Saddam Iraq’, Naval War College Review, 56 (1), 2003, pp 13–29; J Hulsman & J Phillips, Forging a Durable Post‐War Political Settlement in Iraq, Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, 2003, p 1632; and A Dawisha & K Dawisha, ‘How to build a democratic Iraq’, Foreign Affairs, 82 (3), 2003, pp 36–50.

D Byman, ‘Constructing a democratic Iraq’, International Security, 28 (1), 2003, pp 47–78, esp 66–67, 74–75.

PA Gourevitch, ‘Squaring the circle: the domestic sources of international cooperation’, International Organization, 50 (2), 1996, pp 349–373; O Hintze, ‘Military organization and the organization of the state’, in F Gilbert (ed), The Historical Essays of Otto Hintze, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1975; and K Rasler & W Thompson, ‘War making and state making: governmental expenditures, tax revenues, and global wars’, American Political Science Review, 79 (2), 1985, pp 491–507.

R Aron, ‘Remarks on Lassell's “The Garrison State” ’, Armed Forces & Society, 5, 1979, pp 347–359.

A Ross, ‘Dimensions of militarization in the Third World’, Armed Forces & Society, 13, 1987, pp 562–564.

J Stanley, ‘Introduction: an invitation to revisit Lasswell's Garrison State’ in Jay Stanley (ed), Essays on the Garrison State, New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1997, pp 17–41.

A Rathmell, T Karasik & D Gompert, A New Persian Gulf Security System, Santa Monica, CA: rand, 2003.

D Pipes, ‘A border adrift: origins of the conflict’, in S Tahir‐Kheli & S Ayubi (eds), The Iran‐Iraq War: New Weapons, Old Conflicts, New York: Praeger, 1983, pp 3–25.

U Dann, Iraq Under Qassem: A Political History, 1958–1963, Tel Aviv: Praeger, 1969, p 8.

G Harris, Iraq: Its People, Its Society, Its Culture, New Haven, CT: Hraf Press, 1958, p 147.

Kings Faisal I (1921–33), Ghazi (1933–39) and Faisal II (1939–58).

M Heller, ‘Iraq's army: military weakness, political utility’, in A Baram & B Rubin (eds), Iraq's Road to War, New York: St Martin's Press, 1993, pp 37–50; M Heller, ‘Politics and the military in Iraq and Jordan, 1920–1958’, Armed Forces & Society, 4 (1), 1977, pp 75–99; and P Hemphill, ‘The formation of the Iraqi army, 1921–33’, in A Kelidar (ed), The Integration of Modern Iraq, London: Croom Helm, 1979, pp 88–110.

C Tripp, ‘Iraq—ambitions checked’, Survival, 28 (6), 1986, pp 495–509; and P Sluglett, ‘The British legacy’, in Eisenstadt & Mathewson, US Policy in Post‐Saddam Iraq, pp 3–14.

M Khadduri, Republican Iraq: A Study in Iraqi Politics Since the Revolution of 1958, London: Oxford University Press, 1969, p 181.

Harris, Iraq, p 151.

ME Ahrari, ‘Arms races in the Persian Gulf: the post‐cold war dynamics’, in ME Ahrari & J Noyes (eds), The Persian Gulf after the Cold War, Westport, WA: Praeger, 1993, pp 172–196.

G De Gaury, Three Kings in Baghdad: 1921–1958, London: Hutchinson, 1961, p 99, 107; S McKnight, ‘Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi army’, in J Pimlott & S Badsey (eds), The Gulf War Assessed, London: Arms and Armour, 1992, pp 13–34; A. Abbas, ‘The Iraqi armed forces, past and present’, in CARDRI (Committee Against Repression and for Democratic Rights in Iraq) (eds), Saddam's Iraq: Revolution or Reaction?, London: Zed Books, 1986, 203–236; U Dann, ‘The Iraqi officer corps as a factor for stability—an unorthodox approach’, in H Schiffrin (ed), Military and State in Modern Asia, Jerusalem: Academic Press, 1976, pp 259–268.

I Al‐Araif, Iraq Reborn: A Firsthand Account of the July 1958 Revolution and After, New York: Vantage Press, 1982, p 7; and C Trench, The Indian Army and the King's Enemies, 1900–47, London: Thames and Hudson, 1988, p 158.

M Elliott, Independent Iraq: The Monarchy and British Influence 1941–58, London: Tauris Academic Studies, 1996, p 15.

D Silverfarb, The Twilight of British Ascendancy in the Middle East: A Case Study of Iraq, 1941–1950, New York: St Martin's Press, 1994, pp 97, 101, 103–105, 107, 173, 180, 186; Ministry of Defence Brief, 11 March 1954 (FO 371/110821 V1193/42), and Minutes of Meeting with US Survey Teams, 18 March 1954 (FO 371/110821 V1193/43), cited in F Axelgard, ‘US policy toward Iraq, 1946–1958’, PhD dissertation, Fletcher School, Tufts University, 1988, pp 145, 195–196, 201, 207.

Memorandum of a Meeting in the State Department, 14 July 1958 (DDRS 1975, Department of State 628H), cited in Axelgard, ‘US policy toward Iraq’, p 210.

M Ibrahim Al‐Windawi, ‘Anglo‐Iraqi relations 1945–1958’, PhD dissertation, Reading University, p 211; Silverfarb, The Twilight of British Ascendancy in the Middle East, pp 184, 209; Axelgard, ‘US policy toward Iraq’, p135.

C Kupchan, The Persian Gulf and the West: The Dilemmas of Security, Boston, MA: Allen & Unwin, 1987, p 26; H Shemesh, Soviet–Iraqi Relations, 1968–1988, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1992, p 2.

M Khadduri, Republican Iraq, pp 181–182.

M Khadduri, Independent Iraq 1932–1958, London: Oxford University Press, 1960, p 322; JB Kelly, Arabia, the Gulf and the West, New York: Basic Books, 1980, p 276; and J Miller & L Mylroie, Saddam Hussein and the Crisis in the Gulf, New York: Random House, 1990, p 58.

Y Nakash, The Shi'is of Iraq, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994, pp 25–28.

A Toynbee, ‘The controversies over the frontier between Iran (Persia) on the one side and Turkey and Iraq on the other; and the four power Middle Eastern pact of 8th July, 1937’, Survey of International Affairs, 1936, pp 793–803; C Rundle, ‘The Iran/Iraq conflict’, Asian Affairs, 17 (II), 1986, pp 128–133; S Farooq Hasnat, Security Problems of the Persian Gulf: Conflicts and their Resolution, Lahore: Progressive Publishers, 1988, p 35; P Balta, ‘Relations between Iraq and Iran’, in D Hopwood, H Ishow & T Koszinowski (eds), Iraq: Power and Society, Reading: Ithaca Press, 1993, pp 381–397; and CJ Edmonds, ‘The Iraqi–Persian frontier: 1639–1938’, Asian Affairs, 6 (6), 1975, pp 147–154

M Khadduri, Independent Iraq, pp 325–326.

H Almond, Iraqi Statesman: A Portrait of Mohammed Fadhel Jamali, Salem, OR: Grosvenor Books, 1993, p 133.

R Schofield, ‘The historical problem of Iraqi access to the Persian Gulf’, in C Schofield & R Schofield (eds), The Middle East and North Africa: World Boundaries, Vol 2, London: Routledge, 1994, pp 158–159; P Marr, The Modern History of Iraq, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1985, p 98.

P Marr, ‘The Iran–Iraq war: the view from Iraq’, in C Joyner (ed), The Persian Gulf War: Lessons for Strategy, Law and Diplomacy, New York: Greenwood Press, 1990, pp 59–74.

M Farouk‐Sluglett & P Sluglett, Iraq Since 1958: From Revolution to Dictatorship, New York: IB Tauris, 1990, pp 97–98.

Substantial fighting has occurred in 1919, 1922, 1931, 1945–47, 1961, 1963–66, 1969–75, 1980–89 and 1991–2003. R Nyrop, Iraq: A Country Study, Washington, DC: American University, 1979, pp 224–225; and B Souresrafil, The Iran–Iraq War, Plainview, NY: Guinan Lithographic Co., 1989, p 14.

MS Agwani, Politics in the Gulf, New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House, 1978, p 87.

K Makiya, Republic of Fear, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989, p 34; and iiss, The Military Balance 1968–69, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1967, pp 43–44.

J Salvatore, After Saddam Hussein: Winning a Peace If It Comes to War, Special Report 102, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2003, at www.usip.org.

J Quinlivan, ‘Coup‐proofing: its practice and consequences in the Middle East’, International Security, 24 (2), 1999, pp 131–165, esp 144–147.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Julian Schofield

Julian Schofield is in the Department of Political Science, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada. Micah Zenko is a doctoral candidate at Brandeis University, USA. He can be contacted at 79 JFK Street, Littauer P‐12, Cambridge, MA 01238, USA. Email: [email protected].