The Hamas victory: shifting sands or major earthquake?

Abstract

This paper discusses the background to the Palestinian elections and highlights the fact that they are the first democratic elections since 1996. It discusses the reasons for Hamas's participation and the problems it faced. It also examines what issues the electoral candidates needed to touch on in order to win the election. The paper highlights the fact that Fatah's days are over because of widespread corruption. It touches on how Hamas now needs to deal with the international community and how it can compromise with Israel. The paper emphasises that Hamas is the people's choice and that, because it has many obstacles ahead of it, the international community needs to allow it time and to monitor its progress, watching how it deals with being in the real political realm.

Notes

1 ‘Hamas victory in Palestinian vote stuns Mideast’, International Herald Tribune, 27 January 2006; ‘Abbas wants to delay elections', at www.ynetnews.com, 12 December 2005; and ‘Egypt seeks to delay pa elections', at www.ynetnews.com, 20 December 2005.

2 ‘Fatah said to run united in Palestinian elections’, at www.arabicnews.com, 23 December 2005.

3 “No chance” of postponing Palestinian election, official says', at www.cnsnews.com, 20 December 2005.

4 ‘Why Palestinians are voting for Hamas’, Jerusalem Post, 13 January 2006; and ‘Fed up with Fatah, villagers hope for change’, International Herald Tribune, 27 January 2006.

5 http://english.aljazeera.net, 24 January 2006. Mahmoud al-Zahar, explaining the reasons behind Hamas's participation, said: ‘Participation in this elections has become a necessity for several reasons … because of the level of corruption we [Palestinians] have reached, the level of economic and political anarchy, the great anarchy in security, the lives that are being lost in trivial feuds between clans … this security anarchy, which is being exploited for political purposes … [and] the political anarchy and the corruption have reached a point where we ourselves [Palestinians are] building settlements, and supplying them [Israelis] with cement. Today, we no longer know where resources and money of the Palestinian people go.’ www.memri.org, 25 January 2006.

6 Weekly Bulletin, Sky News, 22 January 2006.

7 ‘New Hamas “puts terror on hold” for shot at polls’, Daily Telegraph, 15 January 2006.

8 See the whole text in Arabic, 32 pages of A4, at www.Palestine.org.uk; and ‘Hamas drops call for the end of Israel as poll nears’, Daily Telegraph, 13 January 2006.

9 http://english.aljazeera.net, 22 January 2006.

10 Ibid, 23 January 2006.

11 Financial Times, 20 January 2006.

12 ‘Surge in support for Hamas as voters prepare to reject Fatah’, Guardian, 25 January 2006.

13 ‘Hamas makes strong showing in vote’, Washington Post, 26 January 2006; ‘Big trouble for Fatah’, International Herald Tribune, 22 January 2006; and ‘Hamas makes gains against Fatah, but fails to win power’, Guardian, 26 January 2006.

14 ‘Hamas votes set to sweep Abbas away’, Times Online, 22 January 2006.

15 ‘New Hamas “puts terror on hold”’.

16 Ibid.

17 Many meetings have been held in Cairo, and Hamas has been invited to participate. This participation helped the pa to reach some agreements with Israel.

18 ‘Fed up with Fatah’.

19 http://english.aljazeera.net, 9 November 2005.

20 ‘New Hamas “puts terror on hold”; and ‘Guns or politics? Now Hamas must choose’, Independent, 23 January 2006.

21 ‘Will Hamas turn moderate?’, at www.jpost.com, 27 January 2006. A Christian candidate had joined Hamas's candidate list. He admitted that he shared common cause with Muslims suffering under Israeli occupation. See http://english.aljazeera.net, 23 January 2006.

22 ‘The road to legitimacy’, Guardian, 24 January 2006.

23 Interviewed in the Washington Post, 22 January 2006; and bbc.Arabic.com, 18 January 2006.

24 ‘Hamas tries to exploit its pariah status at ballot box’, at www.timesonline.co.uk, 24 January 2006. Jack Straw, British Foreign Secretary, affirmed that the first principle was ‘that violence and democracy are incompatible’. ‘Egypt: Hamas win a demand for change’, at www.jpost.com, 28 January 2006.

25 Ibid.

26 Ibid.

27 http://English.aljazeera.net, 26 January 2006; and ‘Egypt seeks to delay pa elections’, New York Times, at www.ynetnews.com, 20 December 2005.

28 ‘Egypt: Hamas win a demand for change’.

29 It has been reported that Egypt received guarantees from the USA and Israel that they would agree to negotiate with Hamas if Hamas accepted the ‘two-state’ principle. ‘Report: Israel may talk to Hamas’, New York Times, at www.ynetnews.com, 31 January 2006.

30 ‘How will Jordan deal with Hamas?’ at bbc.Arabic.com, 3 February 2006.

31 P Kumaraswamy, ‘The Jordan – Hamas divorce’, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, 3 (8), 2001, at www.meib.org.

32 ‘Iran hails Hamas victory’, at http://english.aljazeera.net, 26 January 2006; and www.irna.ir, 26 January 2006.

33 ‘US urges Arab states to fund Palestinians after Hamas victory’, Guardian, 31 January 2006; and ‘Hamas rejects “unfair” aid demand’, at http://newsvote.bbs.co.uk, 31 January 2006.

34 http://news.bbc.co.uk, 27 January 2006. Former US President Jimmy Carter asked the international community not to punish the Palestinians. Carter, ‘Don't punish the Palestinians’, at www.washingtonpost.com, 20 February 2006.

35 ‘US holds secret talks to weaken Hamas’, at www.timesonline.co.uk, 9 February 2006.

36 ‘Rice trip aimed at blocking Hamas funds’, at www.jpost.com, 19 February 2006; ‘Rice, on tour, finds Egypt unreceptive to Hamas aid cutoff’, New York Times, at www.nytimes.com, 22 February 2006; and ‘Mixed fortunes for Rice in Middle East’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 24 February 2006.

37 http://www.aljazeera.net, 1 March 2006; and ‘Hamas hails “breakthrough” visit’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 4 March 2006.

38 http://englishe.aljazeera.net, 1 February 2006; and World News Tonight, Sky News, 2 February 2006.

39 ‘US urges Arab states to fund Palestinians after Hamas victory’, Guardian, 31 January 2006. It has been reported ‘that $700 m worth of aid had gone missing under the previous government’. ‘Hamas leadership to meet in Cairo’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 6 February 2006.

40 ‘EU keen on “peaceful” Palestinian govt’, at http://english.aljazeera.net, 26 January 2006.

41 ‘EU and US wait on Hamas’, International Herald Tribune, 31 January 2006.

42 ‘Moscow risks anger over Hamas visit’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 3 March 2006.

43 Ibid.

44 ‘EU set to give cash lifeline to Palestinian authority’, Financial Times, at http://news.ft.com, 24 February 2006; and ‘EU to fill Palestinian fund gap’, at http://news.bbs.co.uk, 27 February 2006. The World Bank had approved $42 million to assist the Palestinian Authority. See http://web.worldbank.org, 7 March 2006.

45 ‘Hamas rejects “unfair” aid demand’. Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Foreign Minister, had said after his meeting with Hamas leaders in Riyadh on 10 March 2006 that ‘we [the Saudi government] are not prejudging or putting conditions on them’. ‘Hamas seeks support from Saudis’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 11 March 2006.

46 ‘Hamas will make a deal’, Guardian, 30 January 2006. Hamas has many alternatives in dealing with the next stage. See www.palestine-info.co.uk.

47 There are suggestions that the US administration can continue to provide aid to the Palestinians through the ngos in the Occupied Palestinian Territories but not through the pa, as the former are more transparent.

48 ‘We cannot recognise Israel, we cannot recognise the occupation’, at www.telegraph.co.uk, 28 January 2006.

49 ‘Alquds al-arabi’, at www.alquds.co.uk, 1 March 2006; and ‘Iran offers Hamas financial aid’, at http://news.bbc.co.uk, 22 February 2006.

50 ‘Hamas assures Palestinian, Arab private sector of full support’, at www.palestine.co.uk, 30 January 2006.

51 News at Eight, Sky News, 26 January 2006.

52 It has been reported that Hamas ‘in its draft programme to form the government [has said] that the decision whether to recognise Israel rested with the Palestinian people, not with any political group or party’. ‘Fatah shuns Hamas’, at http://english.aljazeera.net, 17 March 2006.

53 ‘Hamas ready to move forward’, at http://englishe.aljazeera.net, 3 March 2006.

54 ‘We do not wish to throw them into the sea’, at www.washingtonpost.com, 26 February 2006.

55 ‘Abbas threatens to resign if he fails to reach Hamas deal’, at http://news.independent.co.uk, 25 February 2006; and ‘Qatar amir pledges support to Hamas’, at http://english.aljazeera.net, 27 February 2006.

56 ‘In Moscow, Russians put pressure on Hamas’, International Herald Tribune, at www.iht.com, 3 March 2006.

57 ‘Olmert wants to define borders, ally says’, New York Times, at www.nytimes.com, 6 March 2006; and ‘Kadima planning West Bank pullout’, at www.washingtonpost.com, 6 March 2006.

58 Nearly three-quarters of Palestinians want the newly elected Hamas movement to drop its call for the destruction of Israel. See www.aljazeera.net, 30 January 2006. See also Haim Malka, ‘Forcing choices: testing the transformation of Hamas’, Washington Quarterly, autumn 2005, pp 37 – 54; and Shikaki Khalil, Willing to Compromise: Palestinian Public Opinion and the Peace Process, Special Report, January 2006, United States Institute of Peace, at www.usip.org.