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Original Articles

The Long War: insurgency, counterinsurgency and collapsing states

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Pages 197-215 | Published online: 19 Feb 2007
 

Abstract

This introductory article provides the context for the contemporary debate about insurgency, counterinsurgency and collapsing states taking place against the backdrop of what originated as the ‘global war on terror’ (gwot) and is now increasingly being characterised as ‘the Long War’. The Long War and the gwot are often represented as a ‘new’ era in warfare and US geopolitics, despite the fact that, rhetorically, George W Bush and other administration officials have on occasion invoked the Second World War as analogous to the Long War. This article argues that the Long War is new in important respects, but it also bears many similarities to the Cold War. A key similarity between the Cold War and the Long War is the way in which insurgency and counterinsurgency are seen primarily in the context of inter-state rivalry in which the critical local or regional dynamics of revolution and counter-revolution are neglected. In this context US policy makers and their allies have again erroneously applied a ‘grand strategy’ that suits the imperatives of conventional military and geopolitical thinking rather than engaging with what is a much more variegated array of problems facing the changing global order. The Long War is ostensibly a war against various non-state movements, networks and actors, and is even represented as such by the Pentagon and the White House. However, the overall approach to the Long War has continued to fall back on the conventional ‘American Way of War’ that produces more problems than it solves.

Notes

We would like to thank Jason Brizek (Major, US Special Forces) for his input over the course of a number of discussions on the relationship between counterinsurgency and insurgency in the cold war and post-cold war era. At the same time it goes without saying that he is in no way responsible for any of the views expressed in this introductory article.

1 G Packer, The Assassins' Gate: America in Iraq, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005, p 114; and J Fallows, ‘Blind into Baghdad’, The Atlantic, 293 (1), 2004, p 56.

2 Third World Quarterly itself has devoted special issues to Afghanistan and subsequently to Iraq. See S Barakat (ed), ‘Reconstructing War-torn Societies: Afghanistan’, Third World Quarterly, 23 (5), 2002; and Barakat (ed), ‘Reconstructing Post-Saddam Iraq: A Quixotic Beginning to the “Global Democratic Revolution”’, Third World Quarterly, 26 (4 – 5), 2005.

3 For a good survey of the debate on Iraq, see T Dodge, ‘How Iraq was lost’, Survival, 48 (4), 2006 – 07, pp 157 – 172.

4 ‘Why it will take so long to win’, The Economist, 3 March 2006, pp 14 – 16; J White & AS Tyson, ‘Rumsfeld offers strategies for current war: Pentagon to release 20-year plan today’, Washington Post, 3 February 2006, A08; and S Tisdall & E MacAskill, ‘America's long war’, Guardian, 15 February 2006.

5 J Fallows, ‘Declaring victory’, The Atlantic, 298 (2), 2006, p 73.

6 WJ Dobson, ‘The day nothing much changed’, Foreign Policy, September/October 2006, pp 22 – 25.

7 See D Cole, ‘Are we safer?’, New York Review of Books, 9 March 2006, p 15; and M Boot, ‘The wrong weapons for the long war’, Los Angeles Times, 9 February 2006. See also Daniel Benjamin & Steven Simon, The Next Attack: The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting it Right, New York: Times Books, 2006; and F Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power and the Neoconservative Legacy, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006.

8 ‘From chaos, order: rebuilding failed states’, The Economist, 5 March 2005, pp 45 – 47; and M Boas & KM Jennings, ‘Insecurity and development: the rhetoric of the “failed state”’, European Journal of Development Research, 17 (3), 2005, pp 385 – 399.

9 DA Borer, Superpowers Defeated: Afghanistan and Vietnam Compared, London: Frank Cass, 1999.

10 V Nasr, The Shi'a Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future, New York: WW Norton, 2006.

11 Although, on 25 September 2001, President George W Bush reassured the US public that the new ‘war on terrorism’ would not involve nation building in Afghanistan or beyond, by early 2002 Washington was not only engaged in nation building in Afghanistan, but the Pentagon had begun planning the military invasion of Iraq, and the State Department had begun developing plans for post-war nation building (plans, however, that the Pentagon ignored after the fall of Baghdad). Fallows, ‘Blind into Baghdad’, p 56.

12 N Smith, The Endgame of Globalization, New York: Routledge, 2005.

13 S Constantine, The Making of British Colonial Development Policy 1914 – 1940, London: Frank Cass, 1984.

14 F Cooper, Africa since 1940: The Past of the Present, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002, pp 38 – 65.

15 R Vitalis & S Heydemann, ‘War, Keynesianism and colonialism: explaining state – market relations in the postwar Middle East’, in S Heydemann (ed), War, Institutions, and Social Change in the Middle East, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2000, pp 100 – 102.

16 JM Lee, The Colonial Office, War, and Development Policy: Organisation and the Planning of a Metropolitan Initiative, 1939 – 1945, London: Institute of Commonwealth Studies, 1982; Lee, Colonial Development and Good Government: A Study of the Ideas Expressed by the British Official Classes in Planning Decolonization 1939 – 1964, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1967; and LJ Butler, Britain and Empire: Adjusting to a Post-Imperial World, London: IB Tauris, 2002, esp pp 18 – 24, 34 – 35, 47 – 51, 81 – 85, 107 – 109.

17 It was renamed the Commonwealth Development Corporation in the mid-1960s. M McWilliam, The Development Business: A History of the Commonwealth Development Corporation, London: Palgrave, 2001. More generally, see DJ Morgan, The Official History of Colonial Development (five volumes), London: Macmillan, 1980.

18 WR Louis, The British Empire in the Middle East 1945 – 1951: Arab Nationalism, The United States and Postwar Imperialism, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984, pp 50, 181 – 182.

19 F Cooper & R Packard, ‘Introduction’, in Cooper & Packard (eds), International Development and the Social Sciences: Essays on the History and Politics of Knowledge, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1997, pp 6 – 7; and Vitalis & Heydemann, ‘War, Keynesianism and colonialism’.

20 D Cannadine, Ornamentalism: How the British saw their Empire, London: Penguin, 2001.

21 H Tinker, Men Who Overturned Empires: Fighters, Dreamers and Schemers, Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 1987.

22 F Cooper, ‘Modernizing bureaucrats, backward Africans, and the development concept’, in Cooper & Packard, International Development and the Social Sciences, pp 64, 75 – 76; and Cooper, Decolonization and African Society: The Labor Question in French and British Africa, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

23 MT Berger, ‘From Saigon to Baghdad: nation-building and the specter of history’, Intelligence and National Security, 20 (2), 2005, pp 344 – 356.

24 The best analysis on this point is T Dodge, Inventing Iraq: The Failure of Nation Building and A History Denied, New York: Columbia University Press, 2003, pp 169 – 170.

25 For a good study of the dynamics of this process, which emphasises local actors, see E Karsh & I Karsh, Empires of the Sand: The Struggle for Mastery in the Middle East, 1789 – 1923, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1999.

26 The best overview of Iraq's modern history is CA Tripp, A History of Iraq, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.

27 Dodge, Inventing Iraq, p 170. See also M Eppel, Iraq From Monarchy to Tyranny: From the Hashemites to the Rise of Saddam, Gainesville, FL: University of Florida Press, 2004.

28 Dodge, Inventing Iraq, pp 159 – 163.

29 Ibid, pp x – xii.

30 GJ Ikenberry, ‘Creating yesterday's new world order: Keynesian ‘new thinking’ and the Anglo-American postwar settlement’, in J Goldstein & RO Keohane (eds), Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions and Political Change, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993, p 57.

31 RW Cox, Production, Power and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History, New York: Columbia University Press, 1987, pp 211 – 267; and S Gill, American Hegemony and the Trilateral Commission, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.

32 The governments that received Marshall Plan aid in Europe were: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the UK. Australia and Canada also received some Marshall Plan aid.

33 MJ Hogan, The Marshall Plan: America, Britain, and the Reconstruction of Western Europe, 1947 – 1952, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989. The Organization for European Economic Cooperation (oeec) was set up to co-ordinate the Marshall Plan. With the cessation of aid in 1950, it continued to operate as a focus of economic co-operation among the governments of Europe. The oeec changed its name to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (oecd) in 1961. The USA and Canada joined the oecd. Through its Development Assistance Committee (dac) the oecd increasingly began to act as a vehicle for the distribution of foreign aid from North America and Western Europe to the so-called developing nations of the Third World.

34 B Cumings, ‘Japan in the world-system’, in A Gordon (ed), Post-War Japan as History, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1993; WS Borden, The Pacific Alliance: United States Foreign Economic Policy and Japanese Trade Recovery, 1947 – 1955, Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 1984; and RL McGlothlen, Controlling the Waves: Dean Acheson and US Foreign Policy in Asia, New York: WW Norton, 1993.

35 D Kapur, J Lewis & R Webb, The World Bank: Its First Half-Century, Vol 1, History, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1997, pp 57 – 138.

36 JV Kofas, ‘Stabilization and class conflict: the State Department, the imf and the ibrd in Chile, 1952 – 1958’, International History Review, 21 (2), 1999, pp 352 – 385.

37 Cooper & Packard, ‘Introduction’, pp 8 – 9, 13.

38 Some writers, such as Gilbert Rist, go so far as to represent Truman's Point Four IV as ‘the opening act’ of the ‘Development Age’. G Rist, The History of Development: From Western Origins to Global Faith, London: Zed Press, 1997, p 68.

39 ME Latham, Modernization as Ideology: American Social Science and ‘Nation-Building’ in the Kennedy Era, Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 2000.

40 G Kolko, Confronting the Third World: United States Foreign Policy 1945 – 1980, New York: Pantheon Press, 1988.

41 SG Rabe, The Most Dangerous Area in the World: John F Kennedy Confronts Communist Revolution in Latin America, Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1999.

42 A Hoogvelt, Globalization and the Postcolonial World: The New Political Economy of Development, London: Palgrave, 2001, p 177.

43 A central element of the US-led globalisation project, despite its reorientation after 9/11, has been its focus on the promotion of liberal economic policies and the reconfiguration of state-mediated national development projects into neoliberal states. Also central to the globalisation project are the technological changes of the past few decades, which have undergirded the instantaneous character of a growing range of financial, economic, social, political and cultural transactions. The globalisation project, as conceptualised here, is centred on the USA, but it is also being pursued at a wide range of sites by increasingly unaccountable transnationalised and overlapping elites. The globalisation project is linked, in particular, to the growing concentration of control over the global economy by a relatively small number of large oligopolistic transnational corporations that have emerged from merger-driven and technology-facilitated changes to the global political economy of the past few decades. However, despite the increasingly oligopolistic character of global business operations, the US-led globalisation project is legitimated by, and promoted in the name of, a free enterprise and free trade vision of the global economy. See Philip McMichael, Development and Social Change: A Global Perspective, Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press, 2004; and MT Berger, The Battle for Asia: From Decolonization to Globalization, London: Routledge, 2004.

44 PJ Katzenstein, A World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2006.

45 AJ Bellamy, P Williams & S Griffin, Understanding Peacekeeping, Cambridge: Polity Press, 2004, pp 188 – 268.

46 M Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars: The Merging of Development and Security, London: Zed Press, 2001.

47 For example, see J Gowa, Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999; and EA Henderson, Democracy and War: The End of an Illusion?, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002.

49 For various reports on the planning running up to the invasion, see Fallows, ‘Blind into Baghdad’; B Woodward, Plan of Attack, New York, Simon and Schuster, 2004; Packer, The Assassins' Gate; MR Gordon & BE Trainor, cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq, New York: Pantheon, 2006; and TE Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, New York: Penguin, 2006.

50 CJ Coyne, ‘Reconstructing weak and failed states: foreign intervention and the nirvana fallacy’, Foreign Policy Analysis, 2 (4), 2006, p 343.

51 T Dodge, ‘Iraq: the contradictions of state-building in historical perspective’, Third World Quarterly, 27 (1), 2006, pp 187 – 200. See also C Tripp, ‘The United States and state-building in Iraq’, Review of International Studies, 30 (4), 2004, pp 545 – 558; and J Hippler, ‘Nation-building by occupation? The case of Iraq’, in Hippler (ed), Nation-Building: A Key Concept for Peaceful Conflict Transformation, London: Pluto Press, 2005.

52 J Fallows, ‘Why Iraq has no army’, The Atlantic, 296 (5), 2005, pp 60 – 77.

53 AH Cordesman & P Baetjer, Iraqi Security Forces: A Strategy for Success, New York: Praeger Security International, 2005.

54 See J Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945 – 1991, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001; IFW Beckett, Modern Insurgencies and Counter-Insurgencies: Guerillas and their Opponents since 1750, London: Routledge, 2001; and AJ Joes, Resisting Rebellion: The History and Politics of Counterinsurgency, Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 2005.

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