The Eclipse of Arab Authoritarianism and the Challenge of Popular Sovereignty

Abstract

This paper proposes that the tumultuous events associated with the Arab uprisings are unlikely to engender democracy in the foreseeable future. At best, they will probably produce unstable political orders on the basis of accommodation and ad hoc political alliances. The argument of this paper lends itself to analysis through the examination of Arabs' experience with (1) failed reforms, (2) regime defiance, (3) the gap between youth awakening and sociopolitical reality and (4) the uneasy encounter between nascent competence, confidence and political consensus. The author's assessment suggests that recent dramatic developments in the Arab region are only the beginning of a long process of political evolution that is unlikely to be concluded before the successful resolution of the issue of political identity and the transformation of Arab publics from subjects into citizens.

Notes

 1 J S Fishkin, When the People Speak: Deliberative Democracy and Public Consultation, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009, p 34.

 2 L Sadiki, ‘Popular uprisings and Arab modernization’, in L Khalid (ed), Politics of the Modern Arab World: Critical Issues in Modern Politics, vol. 3, London: Routledge, 2009, pp 289–318, at p 299.

 3 S Erdle, ‘Tunisia: economic transformation and political restoration’, in V. Perthes (ed), Arab Elites: Negotiating the Politics of Change, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004, pp 207–236, at p 207.

 4 Ibid., p 103.

 5 V Perthes, ‘Syria: difficult inheritance’, in V Perthes (ed), Arab Elites: Negotiating the Politics of Change, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004, pp 87–114, at p 87.

 6 For more on these, and related matters, see Arab Human Development Reports at: http://arabstates.undp.org/subpage.php?spid=7

 7 I W Zartman, ‘Concluding remarks: opposition in support of the Arab state, revisited’, in H Albrecht (ed), Contentious Politics in the Middle East: Political Opposition under Authoritarianism, Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida, 2010, pp 229–242, at p 229.

 8 An-Nahar (Beirut), 19 February 2011.

 9 An-Nahar, 11 April 2011.

10 Al-Wasat (Bahrain), 25 March 2011.

11 An-Nahar, 1 April 2011.

12 As-Safir (Beirut), 10 March 2011.

13 An-Nahar, 1 May 2011.

14 An-Nahar, 27 March 2011.

15 Ibid.

16 Al-Akhbar (Beirut), 27 September 2011.

17 An-Nahar, 6 May 2011.

18 An-Nahar, 21 April 2011.

19 An-Nahar, 28 September 2011.

20 Ibid.

21 Salma Shukrallah, ‘Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood struggles to contain cracks', Ahramonline, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/16782/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-Muslim-Brotherhood-struggles-to-contain-cra.aspx.

22 Ibid.

23 ‘Yamaniyyat Yattahimna Saleh Bilmasas Bisharafihinna' [‘Yemeni women accuse saleh of labelling their behavior loose'], http:/www.emaratalyoum.com/politics/news/2011-04-18-1.32185.

24 Madeleine McAulay, ‘The Yemen Youth Revolution', Breitbart, http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2011/10/23/The-Yemen-Youth-Revolution.

25 As-Siyasa (Kuwait), 26 September 2011.

26 ‘Yemen official blames opposition chief for Saleh hit', Reuters, http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE77E1SO20110815.

27 Ash-Sharq al-Awsat (London), 4 October 2011.

28 An-Nahar, 9 June 2011.

29 An-Nahar, 27 September 2011.

30 Alemayehu G. Mariam, ‘Africa's Youths United Can Never be Defeated', http://sd-10807.dedibox.fr/show_items-feed=267195ca5d44e729a96efa35eba61d31?page=2.

31 http://www.alyaum.com/News/art/47768.html (14 April 2012).

32 http://www.alyaum.com/News/art/24793.html (18 August 2011).

33 As-Siyasa, 1 October 2011.

34 As-Safir, 3 June 2011.

35 Al-Ahram (Cairo), 18 April 2012.

36 Jim Muir, ‘Syria “in contravention” of peace plan, says UN chief', BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17863436.

37 As-Siyasa, 10 April 2012.

38 Ibid.

39 Al-Rai (Kuwait), 23 September 2011.

40 As-Safir, 27 September 2011.

41 Ukaz (Riyadh), 25 September 2011.

42 Kevin Owen, ‘Eastern Libya Declares Autonomy', Reuters, http://rt.com/news/libya-split-cyrenaica-autonomy-971/.

43 The Guardian, 31 March 2012.

44 An-Nahar, 4 October 2011.

45 Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, 2 October 2011.

46 Ahmad al-Qudwa, ‘Iqbal ‘ala Dukhul al-Munazzamat al-Siyasiya wa ‘Uzuf ‘an al-Intikhabat', [‘Demand for joining political groups and eschewal of elections'], http://www.emaratalyoum.com/politics/reports-and-translation/2011-08-15-1.416064.

47 Cecily Hilleary, ‘Islam in Tunisia: Will Ennahda Win Usher in Religious Reform?', The Journal of Turkish Weekly, http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/126041/islam-in-tunisia-will-ennahda-win-usher-in-religious- reform.html (4 November 2011).

48 Al-Hayat, 17 August 2011.

49 ‘Dawr al-Mu'arada al-Yamaniya mustaqbalan marhun Bihal Khilafatiha al-Dakhiliya' [‘The future role of Yemeni opposition is contingent upon the ability to solve its internal problems'] http://aden-na. net/Display.asp?page=1020&NewsID=4466.

50 As-Safir, 29 September 2011.

51 Denise Yammin, ‘Washington wa al-Riyadh tas'ayan Lita'wim Nizam al-'A'ila walaw Bighiyab saleh' [‘Washington and Riyadh strive to preserve the family regime even in the absence of Saleh'] http://www.alwahdawi.net/news_details.php?sid=7813.

52 General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, and Sadiq and Hameed al-Ahmar.

53 Al-Qabas (Kuwait), 1 October 2011.

54 Al-Akhbar, 14 March 2012.

55 Ibid.

56 As-Siyasa, 15 March 2011.

57 BBC World News (17 April 2012).

58 ‘Bahrain arrests 60 protest leaders ahead of F1 Grand Prix', PressTV, http://presstv.com/detail/236774.html.

59 Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, 30 September 2011.

60 Vivienne Walt, ‘Why Libya is Becoming More Dangerous After Gaddafi's Fall', Time, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107024,00.html.

61 Al-Akhbar, 30 November 2011.

62 Abdullah Iskandar, ‘Historical Reconciliation', Al Arabiya News, http://www.alarabiya.net/views/2011/11/10/176379.html.

63 As-Siyasa, 2 December 2011.

64 Al-Rai (Kuwait), 28 March 2012.

65 As-Safir, 26 September 2011.