Turkish foreign policy in the post-Arab Spring era: from proactive to buffer state

Abstract

Our globalising world is presently in a state of global turmoil. Risk, uncertainty, and insecurity are the terms that shape global/regional/national/local affairs and developments. The refugee crisis and the war against ISIL constitute the twin crises creating seismic impacts and consequences that in turn escalate risk and turmoil. Turkey is situated at the heart of these two crises, being very much affected by them and, therefore, perceived as a pivotal actor in the way in which the West is dealing with them. Yet, the West’s current instrumentalist and functionalist approach to Turkey as a buffer state designed to contain these two crises in the MENA does not offer an effective and sustainable solution to these crises, much less provide the stability and order that is direly needed in regional and global affairs.

Keywords:

• Global turmoil
• refugee crisis
• war against ISIL
• Turkey as a pivotal actor
• buffer state
• Turkey’s proactive foreign policy

Notes

1. Beck, World Risk Society.

2. Ibid., 18–20.

3. Tierney, 2015. “How Trump and ISIS Help Each Other.” The Atlantic, December 17. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/trump-isis-extremists/420984/.

4. Amnesty International. 2016. “Syria’s Refugee Crisis in Numbers.” February 3. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/02/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/.

5. Ibid.

6. United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees. 2015. “Syrian Regional Refugee Response: Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal.” November. http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php.

7. Ibid.

8. Ibid.

9. 2016. “Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in seven charts.” BBC News Online, February 18. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911.

10. Porter. 2015. “Refugee crisis: Germany has received over 1 million migrants in 2015.” International Business Times, December 10. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/refugee-crisis-germany-has-received-over-1-million-migrants-2015-1532674.

11. Roubini. 2015. “Is Europe Doomed to Collapse?” Social Europe, November 30. https://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/11/is-europe-doomed-to-collapse/.

12. Ikenberry, “Global Security Cooperation,” 94–116.

13. Kaldor, “Restructuring Global Security,” 117–142.

14. Cronin. 2015. “ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group.” Foreign Affairs, March, 87.

15. Ibid.

16. Amnesty International. 2015. “Syria’s Refugee Crisis in Numbers.” September 4. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/09/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/.

17. Akbar. 2015. “Revealed: How the five wealthiest Gulf Nations have so far refused to take a single Syrian refugee.” The Daily Mail Online, September 4. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3222405/How-six-wealthiest-Gulf-Nations-refused-single-Syrian-refugee.html.

18. Kupchan, No One’s World.

19. Ibid.

20. Jacques, When China Rules the World; See also Mearsheimer, 2014. “Can China Rise Peacefully?” The National Interest, October 25. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204.

21. Brzezinski, Strategic Vision.

22. Wehrey, Sectarian Politics in the Gulf.

23. Since June 2015, ISIL has been constantly attacking Turkey. It has conducted five brutal terror attacks in the Turkish cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Şanlıurfa, and Diyarbakır, killing around 150 people and wounding hundreds more. Since mid-January 2016, at least 20 have been killed and dozens wounded in Kilis, located on the southern border of Turkey, by ISIL rockets. These attacks also aim to create an environment of fear and anxiety in society. Another consequence of these attacks is the internal migration and displacement, especially on the border towns of Turkey.

24. This section is based on my own research on Turkey in a Globalizing World: Actors, Discourses, Strategies, which has focused on the different perceptions of Turkey in the post-9/11 world. The research is based on a discourse and content analysis of books, articles, newspaper columns, and reports written on Turkey since 2002. The content analysis aims to discover how Turkey has been perceived and what kind of identity-based perceptions have been attributed to Turkish foreign policy in the global academic and public discourse. This research is still in progress, and the findings will be published as a book, tentatively titled as Turkey in a Globalizing World: Identity, Democracy and Foreign Policy.

25. Kirişçi, “The Transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy,” 29–57.

26. Ibid.

27. Bayer and Keyman, “Turkey: An Emerging Hub,” 73–90.

28. Keyman and Sazak, “Turkey as a ‘Humanitarian State’”; and Murphy and Sazak, “Turkey’s Civilian Capacity in Post-Conflict Reconstruction.”

29. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Turkey’s Energy Strategy.” n.d. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkeys-energy-strategy.en.mfa.

30. Öğütçü, “Turkey and the Changing Dynamics of World Energy,” 63–88.

31. Srivastava and Reed. 2015. “Russia rift pushes Turkey to mend fences with Israel.” Financial Times, December 18. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/540f87f8-a58f-11e5-97e1-a754d5d9538c.html#axzz41e1rt6Kl.

32. Keyman and Gumuscu, Democracy, Identity, and Foreign Policy in Turkey.

33. Müftüler-Baç, “The Revitalization of the Turkish-European Relations.”

34. In recent negotiations an agreement has been made to provide additional aid of up to 3 billion euro to Turkey. Yet, as of May 2016, the first 3 billion euro has not been transferred to Turkey. This has created skepticism in Turkish public opinion on the sincerity of the EU towards actively engaging with a humanitarian response to the refugee crisis.

35. Ibid.

36. Toner. “Daily Press Briefing.” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/02/252582.htm#TURKEY.

37. The concept of “strategic vision” refers to the 2006 agreement between Turkey and the United States to expand the relationship between the two countries beyond security and realpolitik to the areas of trade, investment, and scientific and cultural exchange.

38. See note 33 above.

39. Barkey. 2016. “Kurds are now key to a Middle East solution.” Financial Times, February 25. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5087293e-db1c-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#axzz41jy9P8SD.