All geopolitics is local: the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor amidst overlapping centre–periphery relations

Abstract

Pakistan occupies an elevated role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and hosts its so-called flagship project, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Existing literature has often interpreted this project from a geopolitical perspective, as a vehicle through which a rising China projects influence on a peripheral country and advances its own centrality in international affairs. While such motivations certainly played a major role in getting the project off the ground, they are not the sole determinant of its design, or the heated controversies it triggered within Pakistan. This paper seeks to capture both dimensions by analysing the development of CPEC, and the handling of the conflicts it sparked, through a lens of overlapping centre–periphery relations: one between China and Pakistan at the international level, and one between Islamabad and peripheral regions and groups within the country. I argue that this model best captures the pivotal position and resulting agency of national governments in shaping local BRI implementations. It also shows how the BRI is not a straight case of Chinese influence radiating outwards; rather, contestation by local actors in turn forces adaptations in Chinese foreign and security policy.

Keywords:

• CPEC
• Pakistan
• China
• centre–periphery relations
• infrastructure

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to the two anonymous reviewers, the participants of a 2021 virtual conference on CPEC, and Jonas Wolff for offering their feedback on my evolving manuscript. Research on this article began in late 2020, when international travel was impossible under pandemic restrictions, and local sources could only be contacted remotely. This effort would not have gotten off the ground without the help of Farooq Yousaf, who introduced me to many knowledgeable contacts in Pakistan and abroad. In 2022, proper field research was finally made possible thanks to a grant from the Stiftung Ökohaus Foundation and Hasan Karrar, who hosted me at Lahore University of Management Sciences. Finally, I am particularly grateful to the many interviewees who gave their views on CPEC and its controversial effects on condition of anonymity.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC.

2 Interview with a Baloch politician.

3 Based on a query of the Global Terrorism Database (LaFree and Dugan 2007) of all terror incidents in Pakistan during this time period that had a relation to CPEC or other Chinese projects in the country.

4 Interview with an advisor to the government of Balochistan.

5 Interview with a Baloch politician.

6 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC and an expert on Pakistani civil–military relations.

7 Interviews with two think tank experts and a CPEC Authority official.

8 Interview with two academic experts on CPEC and a Pakistani think tank expert.

9 Interview with a Chinese resident scholar in Pakistan.

10 Interviews with a former advisor to the government of Khyber-Pakhthunkwa and a Baloch politician.

11 Interviews with a former advisor to the government of Khyber-Pakhthunkwa and a Baloch politician.

12 Interviews with two Pakistani non-governmental organisation (NGO) representatives.

13 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC.

14 Interview with a journalist based in Balochistan.

15 Interview with a Pakistani expert on civil–military relations.

16 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC.

17 See a recording of senator Sherry Rehman’s speech to the 2^nd JCM meeting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4pc7Xh7874) and a recording of the ‘Webinar on

Balochistan’s Political Parties’ Dialogue’ organized by the Emerging Policymakers Institute (https://www.facebook.com/epi.org.pk/videos/1660403694126379).

18 Interview with a PCI executive.

19 Based on entries on the PCI website (pakistan-china.com) and its affiliated CPEC information platform (cpecinfo.com).

20 Interviews with a former advisor to the government of Khyber-Pakhthunkwa, 22 November 2020, and an advisor to the government of Balochistan.

21 Interviews with two think tank experts specialising in China–Pakistan relations, and a journalist.

22 Interview with a journalist based in Balochistan.

23 Interview with an advisor to the Balochistan provincial government.

24 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC.

25 Interview with an academic expert on CPEC.

26 Interview with a CPEC Authority official.

27 Interview with a think tank expert.

28 Based on entries on the PCI website (pakistan-china.com) and its affiliated CPEC information platform (cpecinfo.com).

29 Interview with a businessman and former member of the Gwadar board.

30 Interviews with two NGO representatives.

31 Interviews with multiple Pakistani think tank experts, scholars and officials.

Additional information

Funding

Research for this article was supported by a grant from the Stiftung Ökohaus Foundation in Frankfurt, Germany.

Notes on contributors

Pascal Abb

Pascal Abb is a senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), focusing on how a rising China interacts with global conflict environments. He is currently conducting a research project on the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on conflict-affected states. His latest publications are ‘Road to Peace or Bone of Contention? The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Conflict States’ (with Robert Swaine and Ilya Jones, PRIF Report 1/2021) and ‘From “Peaceful Rise” to “Peacebuilder”? How Evolving Chinese Discourses and Self-Perceptions Impact Its Growing Influence in Conflict Societies’ (Journal of Contemporary China 30 (129), 2021).