The Increasing Role of Latent Variables in Modelling Bicycle Mode Choice

ABSTRACT

The growing interest in promoting non-motorised active transport has led to an increase in the number of studies to identify the key variables associated with bicycle use, and especially those related to the bicycle mode choice problem. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the modelling literature on the choice of the bicycle for utilitarian purposes, and summarises and assesses the evolution of the explanatory variables and methodologies used. We review both the evolution of the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle mode choice models and the critical role they play. The chronological evolution of the studies is divided into three stages —initial, intermediate and late — according to the different ways of introducing attitudinal or perceptual indicators and latent variables into the models. Our review shows that the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle choice models has increased in the last decade, with a progressive use of more sophisticated methodologies until the arrival of complex models that explicitly and properly deal with psychological latent variables. In fact, with the use of hybrid choice models, latent variables have nowadays become the core of bicycle mode choice models. Based on our review, a set of questions is proposed as a uniform measurement scale to identify attitudes towards bicycling. Recommendations for future research are also presented.

KEYWORDS:

• literature review
• bicycle
• mode choice model
• latent variable
• attitudinal and perceptual indicators

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Indicators are usually responses to attitudinal or perceptual survey questions.

2. Some of the studies reviewed also include recreational or sport bicycle trips.

3. This research was published years later in a journal as Wardman, Tight, and Page (2007).

4. The paper develops a hybrid discrete choice model that includes bicycle as one alternative, and that follows the suggestions of the present paper.