Multi-level forces and differential effects affecting birth cohorts that stimulate mobility change^*

* The research was conducted at the University of St Andrews.

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a dynamic model at three levels to understand changing mobility trends at the population level. A multi-level framework is proposed that enables existing research and analysis to be considered in a more holistic sense. This framework assists in identifying predictions and transition pathways for different birth cohorts, particularly as they reach older age. This has the aim of bringing about a greater understanding of the socio-demographic influence on mobility trends, with a focus on the cultural transitions that affect birth cohorts differently in terms of their travel behaviour. The framework presented here captures the multi-level forces and structural effects that impact mobility. The paper examines how these forces and effects interact at different levels to influence the changing mobility of birth cohorts at different points in time. Examining the simultaneous operation of these levels is of conceptual importance to assist in the interpretation of mobility trends, as well as understanding future mobility implications, of future generations.

KEYWORDS:

• Mobility trends
• birth cohorts
• demographics
• structural effects
• transport and society

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Donald Houston and Allan Findlay for their comments on earlier drafts of this work.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

* The research was conducted at the University of St Andrews.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [grant number ES/H01599X/1] and MRC McLean Hazel.