The 21st-century Maritime Silk Road: challenges and opportunities for transport management and practice

The “Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative” (hereinafter referred to as the Belt and Road Initiative, in short BRI) is a concept of long-term international cooperation initiated by the People’s Republic of China in 2013. It entails a massive plan that involves about 65 countries, representing about one-third of the world economy. The emphasis is on transport connectivity and economic cooperation among the involved countries. This Special Issue focuses on the new ocean-based Maritime Silk Road, which is a strategic framework proposing the creation of a more connected trade and economic zone connecting countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. In addition, the China-Africa-South America (CASA) trading routes are actively being promoted by China (Lee, 2016). These plans aim to enhance trade facilitation and logistics development. As such, maritime transport, intermodal transport and seaports will require infrastructure development and facility upgrades with respect to building both capacity and capability. Against this background, the transport industry is anticipated to witness a new era of growth and changing patterns in the twenty-first-century.

Shipping has a very long history of facilitating trade and international cooperation since the time of human civilisation. From ancient times to the contemporary world, historical evidence has shown that shipping’s role in the global economy has continued to grow. In the modern age, international trade has expanded by more than 1,700% in volume terms over the last five decades, largely facilitated by shipping (WTO, 2018). With the BRI and related strategic developments, the further growth of maritime trade in the future is inevitable. The proposed trade corridors and zones that comprise the BRI strategy crisscross multiple countries with different transport facilities and logistics environments. It is essential to investigate the respective challenges and opportunities for transport management and practice as the “new Maritime Silk Road” develops (Lee, Hu, Lee, Choi, & Shin, 2017). There are many dimensions of the potential impact that should be explored and analyzed. We hereby address some of these dimensions in relation to the critical aspects of the impact of BRI on transportation.

Shipping networks and connectivity are fundamental to the new Maritime Silk Road, which will contribute to promoting international trade and maritime transport. The “new Maritime Silk Road” proposes more direct linkage of Chinese ports with emerging countries and economic regions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Pacific Islands, the Indian Ocean region, China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor and Africa (Lee et al., 2017). As the shipping network and connectivity are further developed along the new Maritime Silk Road, there will be increasing demand for new shipping links and port connections so that new commercial opportunities manifest themselves for the shipping and port industries. Focusing on the container liner network, Wang et al. (2018, this volume) analyze the evolution of the spatial pattern of China’s international shipping linkages along the Maritime Silk Road from the mid-1990s to 2016. Empirical results show that China’s shipping linkages have expanded over the years. However, the growth rate among various Chinese coastal regions varies as the shipping network pattern has evolved. For example, findings reveal the downward trend of Pearl River Delta ports and the upward trend of Yangtze River Delta ports.

Closely related to the issue of shipping networks and connectivity is the topic of port competition. The ports along the new Maritime Silk Road would expect to see significant potential for future growth, given the overall context of the anticipated higher trade volume (Ruan, Feng, & Pang, 2018). Nevertheless, the hinterlands and forelands of neighbouring ports overlap to various extents, depending on their geographical location and other competitive factors. In consequence, growth in cargo throughput at the port level cannot be taken for granted. There exists a challenge in that ports must prepare for changes in the way they compete, which may lead to increases in cargo volume for some, and less for others. As competition among ports accelerates, some ports will emerge as successful in finding ways to enhance their competitive advantage. Related to this context, Ren et al. (2018, this volume) conduct a multi-attribute decision analysis to evaluate port competitiveness. The evaluation criteria include natural, shipping and external conditions of the three ports being compared, namely Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore. Their results indicate that, based on current conditions, Singapore is the most competitive port, followed by Hong Kong and Shanghai. The authors also examine the potential influence of the BRI on port competitiveness in ten years’ time. In this case, the competitiveness of Shanghai port could surpass that of both Hong Kong and Singapore. Though this finding is not considered to be conclusive, because of the prospective changes in conditions and port strategy, it does provide support for the assertion that the BRI will intensify dynamic port competition.

Another important dimension is logistics performance. This involves the inland accessibility of coastal regions, transport infrastructure, information and communication, value-added services and so on. Logistics is indispensable to the implementation of the new Maritime Silk Road, especially for it to be seamlessly linked to global supply chains (Lee & Lam, 2016). Similar to the situation for shipping and ports, the new developments provide the logistics sector with significant business opportunities. A number of countries located on the Maritime Silk Road, such as Djibouti, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam, have low levels of logistics performance as indicated by a World Bank Logistics Performance Index of less than 3 out of 5 (World Bank, 2016). While there clearly exists great scope for investing in, and growing, the logistics sector in these countries, it would take some time to improve the logistics performance of a large number of countries. Particularly in the initial stage of its development, therefore, the inadequacy of logistics infrastructure and support is likely to prove a hindrance to the BRI. Li et al. (2018, this volume) examine the contribution of logistics infrastructure to China’s economic growth between 2003 and 2014. Their study focuses on the developing regions in China and finds that telecommunications and air transportation are the most influential factors. As such, policy makers can refer to the findings to prioritise investment projects in different logistics sectors for advancing the logistics performance of developing countries.

For such an enormous plan requiring huge amounts of capital investment and resources, it is vital to understand the risk and uncertainty relating to BRI projects. This aspect of the BRI represents a real challenge that requires specific attention. Vulnerability assessment, risk management and the enhancement of resilience are among the key topics in this area. Wan et al. (2018, this volume) have conducted a systematic literature review of resilience in transportation systems. Resilience is a multi-disciplinary concept having different definitions and aspects worthy of consideration from the perspectives of various fields. The authors classify the terminologies and interpretations which facilitate future research in transportation resilience. For the BRI, they suggest forming new evaluation frameworks for resilience assessment in multimodal transport infrastructure development and incorporating uncertainty methods to account for differences between multiple countries. With respect to the BRI specifically, it is important that appropriate methodological tools are employed when designing resilient routes along the new Maritime Silk Road (Lam & Bai, 2016).

Policy makers within the ASEAN countries and stakeholders within regional economic blocs such as the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) are expected to be influenced by the new Maritime Silk Road concept, because they play a key role in the regional and international transport system. In turn, the decisions and actions taken by these policy makers and stakeholders will influence the future of the new Maritime Silk Road. They may significantly facilitate or hinder the development of the new Maritime Silk Road depending on the strategies undertaken. Evolving transport markets and practice complicate the picture, but create a need for research into this pivotal topic. The above discussion has outlined some fundamental dimensions that represent a tantalising mix of challenges and opportunities. The contributions in this thematic special issue provide insights for policy makers and stakeholders into the nature of the critical issues that need to be addressed as this enormous initiative is rolled out into the twenty-first-century.

In sum, the new Maritime Silk Road is expected to exert multi-dimensional impacts on transport management and practice in the long term. This special issue represents an original and timely effort to initiate and prompt further intellectual exchange and deeper investigations into the foreseeable future.