The climate crisis and transport

Once again climate change has become a topic of global importance as the imperative for immediate and effective action increases. The levels of CO₂ emissions are again rising, and the targets set at the COP21 Paris meeting (2015) are becoming almost impossible to achieve. In 1990, the levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere were 354.4 ppmv¹, but by 2018, this level had risen to 408.5 ppmv. This means that in 2018, the levels of fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions reached a record high of 37.1 Gt. To achieve the 1.5°C Paris target global carbon emissions will have to be reduced by 50 per cent in 2030 and to net zero by 2050² (IPCC, 2018). As time passes the reduction rate for all countries increases, making it harder to reach the targets set.

However, several new dimensions to the debate have emerged, initially through the actions of one remarkable young person (Greta Thunberg) and subsequently through mass demonstrations across the globe as school children demonstrate their concerns about the inaction of their peers on climate change. By taking time off their studies on ‘Fridays’, they are wanting to give a clear message to politicians that they have failed them and that they have totally underestimated the scale of the climate crisis. Other grass root movements are also emerging, such as the Extinction Rebellion, where a clear set of demands have been presented to politicians – to be honest about the nature and scale of the emerging climate crisis; to take clear action now; and to instigate a debate through a citizen’s assembly. It is important to keep the climate crisis at the forefront of the political agenda, and to involve all society as part of that process, and to accept the key role that young people must play in determining the future of the planet.

In the UK there is a legal commitment to reducing the net carbon account for all six greenhouse gases by 80 per cent (1990–2050) under the Climate Change Act (2008), and recently (June 2019) this target has been raised to 100 per cent. By 2050 UK greenhouse gas emissions will be cut to net zero³. This would make the UK the first major nation to enact such a legally binding target, and it has been praised by Laurence Tubiana, one of the main proponents of the Paris Agreement (2015), as being an exemplar for other nations. There is a growing realisation among politicians, particularly in the rich countries, that there is a moral duty to eliminate net CO₂ emissions to safeguard the planet for future generations. Even though the financial costs may be high, there are also clear opportunities for new sources of wealth and employment (e.g. over 400,000 are currently employed in the UK low carbon sector), reduced costs for health care provision, improved biodiversity, and the realisation that the costs of doing nothing are far greater (CCC, 2019).

As with many strong statements of political intent, it is the detail that needs more investigation, as change on the scale envisaged cannot be achieved by technological innovation alone. Nations, cities, businesses and society must agree on a common agenda for immediate strong actions that are consistently followed over time, and then operate in mutually supporting ways. Transport provides a common theme across all these actors and it has a key role to play in achieving low carbon futures.

There are good opportunities to substantially reduce CO₂ emissions in cities, and it is important to make such a transition now as there are also considerable health and wider societal costs of continuing to depend on diesel and petrol technologies. Many cities are now-promoting traffic free areas and encouraging walking and cycling, as well as investing heavily in public transport. There are also clear opportunities for reducing trip distances through the concentration of services and facilities where there is good public transport accessibility, and in local neighbourhoods accessible by walking and cycling. Social media and technology also provide the means by which people can network and interact without the need to travel at all (Banister, 2018; Hickman & Banister, 2014).

However, the main difficulties relate to long distance international travel, as this is expected to continue to increase substantially, and these CO₂ emissions are currently excluded from all international negotiations, including the Paris Agreement (2015). They are included in the UK net zero emissions target. At present, the maritime and aviation sectors have been allowed to set and deliver (voluntary) targets. As globalisation progresses, more goods and people are being transported further and more frequently at ever increasing CO₂ costs. The maritime and aviation sectors argue that they are ‘small’ contributors, accounting for about 2.8 per cent and 7.3 per cent of UK CO₂ emissions respectively, with all forms of surface transport contributing a further 23.5 per cent (CCC, 2019). But by 2050, these two sectors may account for over 20 per cent of all UK CO₂ emissions, or about 2.3× the expected level of CO₂ emissions from surface transport (CCC, 2019 – Central Scenario). This radically changing position is a combination of other sectors reducing their levels of CO₂ emissions whilst international transport’s share of the total continues to increase.

Since the CO₂ debate started (about 1990), the UK has made a 38 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (1990–2015). This is a substantial achievement, but these are production based figures and not consumption based. Carbon production has been exported to producer countries. Secondly, these figures have excluded international aviation and maritime transport, so they are overestimates of the true levels of reduction. Over this same period, aviation (international and domestic) has increased its CO₂ emissions to 36.5 Mt CO₂e or about 22 per cent of UK transport emissions. It is no longer a ‘small’ contributor, but a major contributor. This pattern of growth in long-distance travel is not just restricted to the UK but it is characteristic of all developed and many emerging economies. Globalisation has shrunk the planet, and society is now dependent on long distance and high-quality supply chains as continued specialisation and concentration of production have kept prices low. Business practices have been transformed, but it is for leisure activities together with visiting friends and relatives that are now the fastest growing sectors of international travel. Leisure travel and visiting friends and relatives now account for about 85 per cent of UK air travel (Banister, 2018).

Having politically set targets is important, as it gives researchers a clear framework within which to find effective and acceptable solutions. But it is incumbent upon the politicians (and increasingly the public more generally) to introduce effective, consistent and acceptable measures now, otherwise good intentions will not be realised. International maritime and aviation cannot be excluded, as many of the current fleets of vessels and planes will still be in operation in 2050. Offsetting emissions is not a solution to the problem, as it only serves to delay having to make more fundamental decisions. Substantially increasing the costs of flying through taxation on aviation fuel and through charging VAT on tickets, together with appropriate measures to account of the emissions at high altitude, will all help. But the only means to significantly reduce aviation CO₂ emissions levels is to fly less.

The options available to reduce emissions for aviation are very limited, with some scope for electric or hybrid planes, alternative fuels (e.g. biofuels), lighter weight materials, innovative design, improved fuel efficiency, and more efficient air traffic control and routing. But the main problem is the scale of change required and the timeframe needed for effective action. The aviation industry has failed to address the climate crisis in terms of new aircraft or in terms of its operating practices.

Globally, this inaction is compounded by more aviation capacity is being constructed. For example, a third runway at London Heathrow is currently going through its final stages of approval (Summer 2019), and this will increase the number of annual flights from 473,000 to 740,000 (+56 per cent) and passenger numbers from 78 m to 130 m (+67 per cent). Currently, London Heathrow produces 20.83 Mt CO₂e each year, about 95 per cent of which can be attributed to flights (PEIR, 2019), and the expectation is that with the expected growth in travel CO₂ emissions would increase by about a half, even with optimistic assumptions on technological innovations. Expansion on this scale at one major airport makes the UK net zero target unachievable (Watson, 2019).

Heathrow will offset all increases in CO₂ emissions through the UN Corsia scheme that is being introduced as a pilot scheme in 2021, with the voluntary first stage starting in 2024 and a subsequent mandatory phase in 2027, prior to a review in 2032 (ICAO, 2019). Yet there is very little detail on the exact rules to be followed, on eligible offset projects, and on the links with the existing EU Emissions Trading System. The International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation (ICSA, 2018) has calculated that only 6 per cent of all projected CO₂ emissions from international aviation (2015–2050) will be covered. Such an imprecisely specified scheme will have no real impact for at least 10 years, and by that time projected CO₂ emissions from aviation could have doubled (ITF, 2016).

For shipping, there are many more options to reduce CO₂ emissions. These include the use of wind (kite sails), waves (fins) and sun (solar panels), reducing speed and improving the design of vessels, increasing size, through greater efficiency (heat recovery), and clean fuels. It is not so much that there are no options, but more the willingness of the global shipping companies to contribute substantially to CO₂ reduction. The average lifespan of a vessel is about 23 years, and this is slowly falling, but it means that ships ordered today will still be in operation in 2050 (UNCTAD, 2011).

When it comes to international travel by air or sea, there are huge inconsistencies between the rhetoric and the reality. It is hard enough to set the targets for reductions in CO₂ emissions, but decisions are still being made to increase capacity. Such a strategy is entirely at odds with the net zero emissions targets. It is no longer only a matter of economics, but one of the societal values, social pressure and personal choice. It is ultimately one about the quality of the life now and in the future, and the consequences of not addressing the climate crisis in a connected and holistic way that accepts the complexities and interactions between all decisions made.

Notes

1 Parts per million by volume

2 A net-zero target would require a 100% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It is referred to as ‘net’ as the expectation is that it would be met with some remaining sources of CO₂ emissions which would need to be offset by removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere – by growing trees, for example.

3 The Climate Change Act (2008) (2050 Target Amendment Order 2019) has amended the target for 2050 “for 80% substitute 100%” http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111187654