Trump, trust and the transatlantic relationship

ABSTRACT

This article provides an original analysis of the crisis in transatlantic relations during the Trump presidency by drawing on two theories of trust: Hoffman's work on trusting interstate relationships, focused on decision-makers' policies, and Keating and Ruzicka's work on hedging strategies. Hoffman conceptualizes interstate trust as when the trustees are expected to “do what is right” because of shared norms and values; we compare this fiduciary or moralistic approach with the predictive approach, which considers trust a strategic and rational choice made by state leaders with material interests and gains in mind. Applying this theoretical framework, we examine the impact of Trump's “America First” foreign policy on transatlantic relations, showing that there has been a pronounced shift from the fiduciary to the predictive form of trust, a development that challenges the very essence of transatlantic relations. Moreover, we also discuss the hedging initiatives adopted by the European allies in order to cope with this crisis of trust. The article concludes that in spite of periodic crises in the past, Trump's approach to allies and to transatlantic relations created a crisis of trust unlike any seen before, one which will not be overcome merely by a change of US president.

KEYWORDS:

• Trump
• Europe
• transatlantic relations
• transatlantic alliance
• NATO
• EU
• trust theory
• predictive trust
• fiduciary trust

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the editor, Toby James, and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions, as well as the panel participants at the 2020 UACES and 2021 Transatlantic Studies Association conferences where previous drafts of this article were presented.

Disclosure statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.

Additional information

Funding

No funds, grants, or other support was received by any of the authors.

Notes on contributors

Kristian L. Nielsen

Kristian L. Nielsen is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the International University of Sarajevo. His main research field is EU foreign policy, the role of soft power in foreign policy, and transatlantic relations. His work has appeared in European Foreign Affairs Review, l'Europe en formation, Journal of Transatlantic Studies, as well as other journals and edited volumes.

Anna Dimitrova

Anna Dimitrova is an Associate Professor of International Affairs at ESSCA School of Management (Paris), as well as a researcher at the EU*Asia Institute (also at ESSCA). Her research is at the intersection of international politics and international business with a specific focus on political risk, globalization, firm internationalization, US foreign policy and transatlantic relations, and has been published in Journal of Common Market Studies, Millennium Journal of International Studies, Management Decision, Multinational Business Review, L'Europe en formation and other journals.