A primer on the building economics of climate change

Abstract

Climate change will entail new conditions for the construction industry. Knowledge about the implications of climate change on the built environment will be of the utmost importance to the industry in years to come. A building is a ‘long lasting’ durable asset that is changed over time due to exogenously imposed strains and by actions. The built environment has an expected lifetime varying from 60 to more than 100 years. Hence, the building economics of climate change should be treated within a dynamic analytical framework that explicitly allows for changes in the information sets over time. The building stock of the future consists of the building stock of today and of new construction. In the future, parts of the present building stock will be adapted to changes in the environment, while some parts will be kept as they are. Analysis of how building stock is affected by future climate change should handle this diversity. This can be done through the use of a putty-clay model. Uncertainty of what kind of climate regimes will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of actions that increase future flexibility. Hence, the real option approach to building economics is utilized.

Keywords:

• Building Economics
• Global Warming
• Climate Change
• Putty-clay
• Real Options
• Building Stock
• Building Enclosure Performance