Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: an extension of the Bon qualitative input–output model

Abstract

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with ‘knock‐on’ effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production–consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input–output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Keywords:

• Energy policy
• input–output analysis
• Bayesian belief networks
• carbon management
• sustainable consumption and production

Acknowledgements

This work forms part of Carbon Reduction in Buildings (CaRB) Consortium, which has five UK partners: De Montfort University, University College London, The University of Reading, University of Newcastle upon Tyne and The University of Sheffield. They are supported by the Carbon Vision initiative which is jointly funded by the Carbon Trust and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, with additional support from the Economic and Social Research Council and Natural Environment Research Council. The partners are assisted by a steering panel of representatives from UK industry and government.