A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone

Abstract

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.

Keywords:

• Tropical cyclone
• Genesis Potential Parameter
• cyclone track prediction
• cyclone intensity prediction

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, for providing all the facilities to carry out this research work. The authors acknowledge the use of data and products of NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, and UKMO in this research work.