The Reformation of Deterrence: Moving On

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to advance the deterrence reformation that has as its principal manifesto Keith Payne's book, The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction (2001). The argument complements and augments that of Payne. It reflects the view that in order to succeed, this reformation requires many studies, much persuasion, considerable time, and an official commitment to a new approach to the problem of deterrence. The study is not critical of the concept of deterrence, only of the particular theory which has guided U.S. policy. Far from being an attack upon deterrence, the intention here is to help enable deterrence policy to be all that it can be. The reform literature seeks to increase the prospects for policy success with deterrence, while also scaling back expectations of such success.