The United States Senate and the Politics of Ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Abstract

With President Barack Obama's recent pledge to work toward U.S. Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (the Treaty or CTBT) as quickly as possible and with emerging consensus in Washington on the need to take action to stop nuclear proliferation, ratification is a more realistic possibility in the near future than at any point in the last decade. Yet, despite this positive momentum, ratification could likely depend on the votes of several moderate Senate Republicans. This paper argues that while moderate Republicans might support the Treaty's goals, they are not likely to vote in favor of ratification. This paper examines the consequences of not ratifying the Treaty and concludes that, with the current U.S. moratorium on testing still in place, ratification at this time is not necessary to achieve U.S. non-proliferation goals. In fact, failing to secure ratification, a real possibility, could have significant political consequences for the Obama Administration and might set back U.S. nuclear non-proliferation efforts for years to come.

Notes

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2. Barack Obama, “Speech on Nuclear Non-Proliferation,” in Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009.

3. Letter Signed by 62 Senators Requesting a Delay on Consideration of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, October 13, 1999.

4. “Nuclear Dangers Coalition: Eight in Ten Americans Support CTBT,” Press Release, July 20, 1999, available at http://www.commondreams.org/pressreleases/july99/072099c.htm.

5. John McCain, “Remarks on the CTBT,” Congressional Record, October 12, 1999, S12398-99.

6. Richard Lugar, “Statement in Opposition of the CTBT,” Richard Lugar Press Release, October 7, 1999.

7. McCain, “Remarks on the CTBT.”

8. Ibid.

9. Madeleine Albright, “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” October 7, 1999.

10. Hugh Shelton, “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Armed Services: National security Implications of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” October 6, 1999.

11. Lugar, “Statement in Opposition of the CTBT.”

12. Max Baucus, “Statement on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Congressional Record, S12474.

13. Lugar, “Statement in Opposition of the CTBT.”

14. Robert Suro, “CIA Admits Test-Ban Shortcomings,” International Herald Tribune, October 4, 1999.

15. Richard Durbin, “Statement on Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Congressional Record, October 13, 1999, S12468–S12469.

16. William Cohen, “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Armed Services: National security Implications of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” October 6, 1999.

17. Richard Shelby, “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” October 7, 1999.

18. Lugar, “Statement in Opposition of the CTBT.”

19. Ibid.

20. McCain, “Remarks on the CTBT.”

21. Charles Hagel, “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” October 7, 1999.

22. Letter from James Schlesinger, Richard Cheney, Frank Carlucci, Caspar Weinberger, Donald Rumsfeld, and Melvin Laird to The Honorable Trent Lott, Majority Leader, United States Senate, and The Honorable Tom Daschle, Democratic Leader, United States Senate, in SASC CTBT hearings, 1999, p. 58.

23. John Warner, “Testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” October 7, 1999.

24. Ibid.

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26. McCain, “Remarks on the CTBT.”

27. William Jefferson Clinton, “Letter of Transmittal on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” 22 September 1997.

28. Warner, “Testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.”

29. McCain, “Remarks on the CTBT.”

30. John Warner, “Statement on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Congressional Record, October 6, 1999, S12090–S12093.

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34. Richard Lugar, “Lugar Says Arms Control Has Suffered Significant Setbacks,” Senator Lugar Press Release, January 30, 2008.

35. Richard Lugar, “Lugar Says Arms Control Has Suffered Significant Setbacks.”

36. National Security Working Group, “Report on Reducing Nuclear Threats and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism,” October 19, 2007.

37. Medalia, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments.”

38. Obama, “Presidential Q&A: President-elect Barack Obama.”

39. National Academy of Sciences, Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2002), available at http://www.7.nationalacademies.org/ocga/briefings/Technical_Issues_Related_to_Comprehensive_Test_Ban_Treaty.asp

40. Paula DeSutter, “Passing Test Ban Treaty Won't Help,” Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2009, available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123595869516506021.html

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42. Thomas D'Agostino, “Statement before the Senate Committee on Armed Services,” March 12, 2008.

43. Medalia, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments.”

44. Kevin Chilton and Greg Weaver, “Waging Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century,” Strategic Studies Quarterly (Spring 2009), 41.

45. D'Agostino, “Statement before the Senate Committee on Armed Services.”

46. Thomas D'Agostino, “Statement before the House Appropriations Committee,” March 17, 2009.

47. Gates, “Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in the 21st Century.”

48. Walter Pincus, “Biden to Shepherd Test Ban Treaty Vote,” Washington Post, April 8, 2009, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/07/AR2009040703719.html

49. Jonathan Medalia, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments,” Congressional Research Service, January 8, 2009.

50. Pincus, “Biden to Shepherd Test Ban Treaty Vote.”

51. Obama, “Speech on Nuclear Non-Proliferation.”

52. Interim Report, “Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,” December 15, 2008.

53. Robert Gates, “Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in the 21st Century,” Federal News Service Transcript, October 28, 2008, available at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/1028_transcrip_gates_checked.pdf

54. Obama, “Presidential Q&A: President-elect Barack Obama.”

55. Arlen Specter, “Statement on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Congressional Record, October 6, 1999, S12051–12052.

56. Carl Levin, “Levin Calls for Delay in Senate Vote In Order to Preserve CTBT,” Senator Levin Press Release, October 8, 1999.

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