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Original Articles

Taiwan and China: A geostrategic reassessment of U.S. policy

 

ABSTRACT

Located offshore of Asia and Mainland China, Taiwan possesses strategic significance because of its location between Japan and The Philippines. Current U.S. policy dates from conditions existent during the Cold War, when China was relatively isolated, economically underdeveloped, and still undergoing the Cultural Revolution, while Taiwan was under martial law and ruled by an authoritarian dictatorship. Taiwan has since evolved into a multiparty, representative democracy while China has transformed itself into a major power, but has retained the one-party authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party. U.S. policy needs readjusting to align with contemporary realities and future trends, which includes finding a balance between its One China policy and allowing the people of Taiwan a significant say in their future. Current American policy fosters a future scenario of poor choices to be made in the context of a crisis instigated at a time of China's choosing.

Acknowledgement

The author wishes to thank the late Dr. Teng Wu for his editorial suggestions and inspiration.

Notes

1. CIA Factbook, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html (accessed July 7, 2016).

2. Jonathon Manthorpe, Forbidden Nation: A History of Taiwan (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).

3. Emma Teng, Taiwan's Imagined Geography: Chinese Colonial Writings and Pictures, 1683–1895 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004).

4. Manthorpe, Forbidden Nation.

5. Colin Gray and Geoffrey Sloan, “Sir Halford Mackinder: The Heartland Theory Then and Now,” in Geopolitics, Geography and Strategy, edited by Colin Gray and Geoffrey Sloan (London, Frank Cass, 1999), 16–38; and George White, Nation, State and Territory: Origins, Evolutions and Relationships (New York: Rowan and Littlefield, 2004), 59.

6. Jean Gottman, The Significance of Territory (Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia Press, 1973), 1–49, Patrick O'Sullivan, Geopolitics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1986), 54–55; and White, Nation, State, 67–71.

7. David Knight, “People Together, Yet Apart: Rethinking Territory, Sovereignty and Identity,” in Reordering the World: Geopolitical Perspectives on the 21st Century, edited by George Demko and William Wood (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994), 73–76.

8. Nicholas Spykman, America's Strategy in World Politics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1942), 80–81, 132, 136, 180–182, 468–470; Colin Gray, “Nicholas Spykman, The Balance of Power and International Order,” Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 6 (2015); and Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein, “Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst: China's Response to US Hegemony,” Journal of Strategic Studies 29, no. 6 (2006): 955–86.

9. Jun Osawa, “China's ADIZ over the East China Sea: A Great Wall in the Sky,” Brookings Institute, December 17, 2013, www.brookings.edu/opinions/chinas-adiz-over-the-east-china-sea-a-great-wall-in-the-sky/ (accessed December 30, 2016).

10. Homer Lea, The Valor of Ignorance (New York: Harper Brothers, 1909), 125–26.

11. Richard Bush, Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2005); Edward Friedman, China's Rise, Taiwan's Dilemma and International Peace (New York: Routledge, 2006), Manthorpe, Forbidden Nation; and David Shambaugh, “Facing Reality in China Policy,” Foreign Affairs 80, no. 1 (2001): 50–64.

12. Lok-sin Loa. “Legislative Elections and Referendums: New Vote System May Create Shift in Voting Pattern,” Taipei Times, January 13, 2008.

13. Robert Ross. “Taiwan's Fading Independence Movement,” Foreign Affairs 85, no.2 (2006): 17–32; and Michael Swaine, “Trouble in Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs 83, no. 2 (2001): 39–49.

14. Gottman, The Significance of Territory, 25; and Knight, “People Together,” 74.

15. Manthorpe, Forbidden Nation, 197.

16. Ibid., 198

17. Edward Gargan, “Chinese Missile Testing Fails to Disrupt Life on Taiwan,” The New York Times, March 9, 1996, www.nytimes.com/1996/03/09/world/chinese-missile-testing-fails-to-disrupt-life-on-taiwan.html (accessed February 22, 2016).

18. Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes, Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2010), 6.

19. Erickson and Goldstein, “Hoping for the Best,” 955–986; and Robert Haddick, Fire on the Water: China, America and the Future of the Pacific (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2014), 94–104.

20. Jim Mann, “Clinton's First to OK China, Taiwan's 3 No's,” Los Angeles Times, July 8, 1998, articles.latimes.com/1998/jul/08/news/mn-1834 (accessed December 20, 2015).

21. Thomas Ricks and Steven Mufson, “Taiwan Arms Deal Excludes Warships,” Washington Post, April 18, 2000, apa.org/tsea/pntr/nowarshipwashpost418.html (accessed July 12, 2016).

22. Shirley Kan, Taiwan: Major Arms Sales Since 1990 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2014), 8 and 18–19.

23. Kan, Taiwan: Major Arms Sales Since 1990, 5.

24. Kan, Taiwan: Major Arms Sales Since 1990, 7–17, 24–25 and Lieven DeWitte, US Suspends F-16 C/D Sale to Taiwan, October 3, 2006, /www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article2006.html (accessed July 5, 2016).

25. White Paper 2001: Regarding Taiwan and Its Future (Washington, DC, 2001), 21.

26. US Code 22:48 sections 3301(b) 3302(c).

27. Martin Mitchell, “The South China Sea: A Geopolitical Analysis,” Journal of Geography and Geology, 8, no. 3 (2016): 14–24.

28. United States Code. Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, Title 22, chapter 48, section 3301 subsection b, and section 3302 subsection c.

29. Erickson and Goldstein, “Hoping for the Best,” 955–986.

30. Mark Landler and David Sanger, “Trump Speaks with Taiwan's Leader, an Affront to China,” The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/politics/trump-speaks-with-taiwans-leader-a-possible-affront-to-china.html?_r=0 (accessed February 15, 2017).

31. Ibid.

32. Mark Landler and Michael Forsythe, “Trump Will Honor One China Policy,” The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/world/asia/donald-trump-china-xi-jinping-letter.html (accessed February 15, 2017).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Martin Mitchell

Martin Mitchell ([email protected]) holds a PhD in geography from the University of Illinois. He is currently a professor of geography and Distinguished University Scholar at Minnesota State University, Mankato. He has extensive field experience in Taiwan and has witnessed its evolution from martial law into a modern, multiparty democracy.

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