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Abstract
The main aim of the article is to contribute to the better understanding of the role of military exercises for the deterrence strategy of NATO, in particular by proving the premise that military exercise is one of the most effective instrument of the military capabilities demonstration and political persuasion. Against the backdrop of the Russian revisionism and its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, NATO and its member states have substantially reinforced their deterrence capabilities. An increased number of military exercises, their geography and scale are intended to demonstrate the Alliance’s capacity and commitment to respond to potential aggression.
Acknowledgments
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors. They do not reflect the official position or views of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine or the Government of Ukraine.
Notes
1 Alexander L.George, Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974).
2 Beatrice Heuser, Tormod Heier and Guillaume Lasconjarias (ed.), Military Exercises: Political Messaging and Strategic Impact (NATO Defense College NDC Forum Papers Series, Rome 2018), 9.
3 Ibid., 24-25.
4 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, “Active Engagement, Modern Defence Strategic Concept for the Defence and Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation adopted by Heads of State and Government in Lisbon”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_68580.htm.
5 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, “Deterrence and Defence Posture Review”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_87597.htm.
6 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, “Wales Summit Declaration”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm#:∼:text=At%20our%20Summit%20in%20Chicago,against%20a%20ballistic%20missile%20attac.
7 European Deterrence Initiative, Office of the Under Secretary of Defence (Comptroller), February 2020, https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_EDI_JBook.pdf
8 Wales Summit Declaration, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation official website, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm#:∼:text=At%20our%20Summit%20in%20Chicago,against%20a%20ballistic%20missile%20attack
9 NATO Public Diplomacy Division Fact Sheet, “Exercise Trident Juncture 2015”, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2015_10/20151008_1510-factsheet-tj15_EN.pdf
10 Kalev Stoicescu, “Deterrence is Highly Dependent on Large-scale Exercises”, International Centre for Defence and Security, (March 2019), https://icds.ee/en/deterrence-is-highly-dependent-on-large-scale-military-exercises/.
11 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, “Warsaw Summit Communiqué”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm.
12 Ibid.
13 Albin Aronssonand, Björn Ottosson, Västlig militär övningsverksamhet 2014-2019– Anpassning, utveckling och framsteg [Western military exercises 2014-2019 – Adjustment, development, and progress] (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm, 2020), 4, 22, https://www.foi.se/rapportsammanfattning?reportNo=FOI-R–4875–SE.
14 NATO Public Diplomacy Division Fact Sheet, “Key NATO and Allied exercises in 2021”, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/3/pdf/2103-factsheet_exercises.pdf
15 Ralph Clem, “Military Exercises As Geopolitical Messaging In The NATO-Russia Dynamic: Reassurance, Deterrence And (In)Stability”, Texas National Security Review: Volume 2, Issue 1, (November 2018), https://tnsr.org/2018/11/military-exercises-as-geopolitical-messaging-in-the-nato-russia-dynamic-reassurance-deterrence-and-instability/.
16 Roger McDermott, “Moscow Reacts Warily to NATO’s Largest Military Exercise in 25 Years”, The Jamestown Foundation, Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 11, https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-reacts-warily-to-natos-largest-military-exercise-in-25-years/
17 Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos, “Russian National Security Strategy”, (December 2015), http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
18 Russian Gazette “Военная доктрина Российской Федераци” (Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation), (2014), https://rg.ru/2014/12/30/doktrina-dok.html.
19 Sergey Minasyan,“Dynamics of Russian Conventional Deterrence: Theoretical Foundations for Practical Strategy”, UA: Ukraine Analytica 3(5), (2016), 29, https://ukraine-analytica.org/dynamics-of-russian-conventional-deterrence-theoretical-foundations-for-practical-strategy/.
20 Dave Johnson,“ZAPAD 2017 and Euro-Atlantic security”, NATO Review, (December 2017) https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2017/12/14/zapad-2017-and-euro-atlantic-security/index.html
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Danylo Kubai
Danylo Kubai ([email protected]) currently serves as a diplomat at the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the International Organizations in Vienna. He received his BA and MA in international relations from the Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. The area of his professional interests includes military and political dimensions of international security, deterrence theory and history of international relations.