Space as a warfighting domain: Reshaping policy to execute 21st century spacepower

Abstract

There has been a shift in opinion in the U.S. governing and defense-planning circles causing leaders to accept the reality that space is a warfighting domain. Despite arguments put forth over the past several decades by sanctuary-policy proponents that space should remain free of Earth’s conflicts, reality has dictated otherwise as other powerful nations have acquired the capabilities to execute offensive and defensive operations within the space domain. The U.S. national vision for space must fold in the reality of possible combat engagements in space. If we are to ensure space dominance, the U.S. administration and the nation’s lawmakers will have to take some policy risks in a time when near-peer competition in space is growing rapidly and significantly. Inaction, inadequate action, or misguided action will have negative effects, and place at risk the U.S. ability to enforce its deterrence strategy and fight a battle that may involve space warfare.

Notes

1 White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald Trump is Establishing America’s Space Force,” February 19, 2019, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-trump-establishing-americas-space-force/; White House, “Fact Sheet: President J. Donald Trump is Unveiling an America First National Space Strategy,” March 23, 2018, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-unveiling-america-first-national-space-strategy; White House, “Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Future of the U.S. Military in Space,” August 9, 2018, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-future-u-s-military-space/; 2018 National Strategy for Space, March 23, 2018; Jim Garamone, “Space Force Flag Unveiled at White House,” DoD News, available at https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2189023/space-force-flag-unveiled-at-white-house/; Department of Defense, Defense Space Strategy Summary, June 2020, p. 1, available at https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jun/17/2002317391/-1/-1/1/2020_DEFENSE_SPACE_STRATEGY_SUMMARY.PDF; Stephen Kitay, DASD (Space), “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy to Reporters,” June 17, 2020, transcript available at https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2225281/defense-official-briefs-defense-space-strategy-to-reporters/.

2 Joe Gould, “Congress Adopts Defense Bill that Creates Space Force,” Defense News, December 17, 2017, available at https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/12/17/congress-adopts-defense-bill-that-creates-space-force/; See also Kitay, “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy to Reporters”; Gen. John W. Raymond, “How We’re Building a 21^st-Century Space Force,” Atlantic Online, December 20, 2020, available at https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/building-21st-century-space-force/617434/. General Raymond is the nation’s first Chief of Space Operations.

3 White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p. 8, available at https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf. White House, “Remarks by President Trump and Vice President Pence Announcing the Missile Defense Review, January 17, 2019, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-announcing-missile-defense-review/

4 Transcript, “Media Roundtable with U.S. Space Command Commander Gen. John Raymond,” Defense.gov, August 29, 2019, available at https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/1949346/media-roundtable-with-us-space-command-commander-gen-john-raymond/.

5 Joseph Nimmich, Written testimony for a Joint House Armed Services, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces; and, House Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Response and Communications, hearing titled “Threats to Space Assets and Implications for Homeland Security,” March 29, 2017, available at https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/threats-space-assets-and-implications-homeland-security.

6 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, National Security Space Defense and Protection: Public Report (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2016), p. 2, available at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23594/national-security-space-defense-and-protection-public-report.

7 Steve Lambakis, Foreign Space Capabilities: Implications for National Security (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2017), pp. 49–53.

8 According to the FY 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) authorizing the Space Force, the Space Force shall be organized, trained and equipped to provide: 1) freedom of operation for the United States in, from, and to space; and 2) prompt and sustained space operations. Among the duties of the Space Force are: 1) protect the interests of the United States in space; 2) deter aggression in, from, and to space; and 3) conduct space operations. See Thompson Hine, “FY 2020 NDAA Signed into Law with U.S. Space Force, Cyber Operations & Acquisition, thompsonhine.com, December 26, 2019, available at https://www.thompsonhine.com/publications/fy-2020-ndaa-signed-into-law-with-us-space-force-cyber-operations-acquisition-reforms.

9 This work is a follow-on to the author’s 2001 book, Steven Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power (Lexington, KY: The University Press of Kentucky, 2001).

10 Gina Harkins, “Space Wars: Why Top Military Leaders Say U.S. Must Prep for Battles Beyond Earth,” Military.com, August 24, 2020, available at https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/24/space-wars-why-top-military-leaders-say-us-must-prep-battles-beyond-earth.html.

11 Defense Intelligence Agency, Challenges to Security in Space (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence Agency, January 2019), available at http://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf. See also Sandra Erwin, “Space Force technology roadmap to emphasize partnerships with private sector,” Space News Online, August 19, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/space-force-technology-roadmap-to-emphasize-role-of-private-sector/.

12 See Theresa Hitchens, “Space Force Will Boost Reliance On Commercial Sats: Gen. Raymond,” BreakingDefense.com, December 2, 2020.

13 Harkins, “Space Wars.”

14 Dr. Mark T. Esper, Remarks at USSPACECOM Change of Command, August 20, 2020. See also Bill Gertz, “Second Defector’s Knowledge of Chinese Bioweapons Reaches U.S.: Esper on Space Threats,” Washington Times Online, September 16, 2020." Available at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/16/second-china-defector-gives-biological-weapons-inf/. See also DoD, Defense Space Strategy Summary, p. 1, and Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, “Space Dominance Requires Taking Technology and Policy Risks,” Defense News Online, September 14, 2020, available at https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/09/14/space-dominance-requires-taking-technology-and-policy-risks/.

15 Gerald F. Seib, “Gen. Mark Milley: The Biggest Security Challenges for the U.S. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Talks about the Risks posed by China and Russia,” Wall Street Journal Online, December 13, 2020.

16 DoD, Defense Space Strategy Summary, p. 3. Defense Intelligence Agency, Challenges to Security in Space, 2019, p. 14, available at http://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf. See also Patrick M. Shanahan and Joseph F. Dunford, “Statement of Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan & Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph F. Dunford before the Senate Armed Services Committee,” April 11, 2019. Kitay, “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy.”

17 Defense Intelligence Agency, Challenges to Security in Space, pp. 20, 21.

18 Trefor Moss, “Both the U.S. and China have Secretive Programs to Develop Unmanned, Reusable Spaceplanes,” Wall Street Journal Online, September 4, 2020, available at https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-launches-experimental-spaceplane-11599217896.

19 For a summary of the growing China space threat to U.S. systems, see Lambakis, Foreign Space Capabilities, p. 19–26, and; Lambakis, A Guide to Thinking About Space Deterrence and China, (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2019), pp. 11–22, and Sandra Erwin, “Raymond on China’s Space Program: ‘It’s Alive, Well and Concerning,’” SpaceNews Online, December 17, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/raymond-on-chinas-space-program-its-alive-well-and-concerning/.

20 William Broad, “How Space Became the Next ‘Great Power’ Contest Between the U.S. and China,” New York Times, January 24, 2021, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html.

21 DIA, Challenges, p. 13. See also Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China 2020: Annual Report to Congress (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, August 2020), pp. viii, 63–65. See also Brian G. Chow and Henry Sokolski, “U.S. Satellites Increasingly Vulnerable to China’s Ground-based Lasers,” SpaceNews Online, July 10, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/op-ed-u-s-satellites-increasingly-vulnerable-to-chinas-ground-based-lasers/.

22 James Clapper, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (Washington, D.C.: Director of National Intelligence, February 9, 2016), available at https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clapper_02-09-16.pdf. For a look at how Russia is demonstrating increasingly advanced orbital maneuvering capabilities, see Pavel Luzin, “Cosmos ASATs and Russia’s Approach to Space Weapons,” Eurasia Daily Monitor Vol. 17, Iss. 121, August 14, 2020. Russia has demonstrated two different types of space weapons. See Greg Norman, “Russia Tests Anti-satellite Missile in pursuit to make space a ‘warfighting domain,’ US officials say,” Fox News, December 16, 2020, available at https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-space-command-russia-tests-anti-satellite-missile.

23 Kitay “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy,” June 17, 2020.

24 Sandra Erwin, “Space Force Official: Russian Missile Tests Expose Vulnerability of Low-Orbiting Satellites,” SpaceNews Online, December 16, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/space-force-official-russian-missile-tests-expose-vulnerability-of-low-orbiting-satellites/.

25 See Steve Ranger, “US Intelligence: 30 Countries Building Cyber Attack Capabilities,” ZDNet, January 5, 2017, available at http://www.zdnet.com/article/us-intelligence-30-countries-building-cyber-attack-capabilities/.

26 See Kitay, “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy.”

27 See Theresa Hitchens, “Cyber Attack Most Likely Space Threat – Maj. Gen. Whiting,” BreakingDefense.com, September 16, 2020, available at https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/cyber-attack-most-likely-space-threat-maj-gen-whiting/.

28 A review of space policy history and the origins of the freedom of space principle can be found in Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth, pp. 211–235. White House Memorandum, “Discussion at the 339^th Meeting of the National Security Council, Thursday, October 10, 1957,” available at https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/research/online-documents/sputnik/10-11-57.pdf.

29 See White House, National Space Policy of the United States of America, December 9, 2020, p.1, available at *National-Space-Policy.pdf (whitehouse.gov).

30 The 1976 NSDM-333 sought to enhance satellite survivability, available at https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-ford/nsdm-333.pdf; and NSDM-345, issued in January 1977 toward the end of the Ford Administration, focused on development of the first non-nuclear ASAT, laying the groundwork for the first non-nuclear ASAT test using an F-15 in 1985, available at https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-ford/nsdm-345.pdf. “1e. The United States will pursue Activities in space in support of its right of self-defense.” See Presidential Directive/NSC-37, “National Space Policy,” May 11, 1978, available at https://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/nsc-37.html

31 The Bush missile defense policy was built on the institutional and policy foundations laid by President Reagan in his March 23, 1983 address to the nation introducing his bold and revolutionary approach to missile defense development called the Strategic Defense Initiative.

32 George W. Bush included homeland ballistic missile defense system development and deployment in his presidential campaign platform. The ABM Treaty limited both countries to two missile defense sites, each one having no more than 100 interceptor launchers. The 1974 protocol reduced the number of sites for each treaty signatory to one.

33 Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth, pp. 292, 296, and pp. 283–285.

34 Lambakis, Foreign Space Capabilities, pp. 80–81.

35 See, for example, statement by Gen. John Raymond: “The scope, scale and complexity of the threat to our space capabilities is real and it’s concerning. We no longer have the luxury of operating in a peaceful, benign domain, and we no longer have the luxury of treating space superiority as a given.” In transcript, “Media Roundtable with U.S. Space Command Commander.”

36 DoD, Defense Space Strategy Summary, p. 4. See also Transcript, “Media Roundtable with U.S. Space Command Commander.” See also Dennis Blair and Robert Work, “Stovepipes in space: How the U.S. can overcome bureaucracy to improve capabilities,” Defense News Online, July 13, 2020, available at https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/07/13/stovepipes-in-space-how-the-us-can-overcome-bureaucracy-to-improve-capabilities/.

37 Brian Weeden, Through a Glass, Darkly: Chinese, American, and Russian Anti-satellite Testing in Space, (Broomfield, CO: Secure World Foundation, March 17, 2014), pp. 1–19, available at https://swfound.org/media/167224/through_a_glass_darkly_march2014.pdf. See also Gen. John E. Hyten, Hearing on the Nomination of General John Hyten to be Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, 114^th U.S. Congress, Senate Armed Services Committee, September 20, 2016, p. 20, available at https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/16-70_9-20-16.pdf.

38 Department of Defense, Final Report on Organizational and Management Structure for the National Security Space Components of the Department of Defense (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, August 9, 2018).

39 Sandra Erwin, “Raymond: Space Force has a plan to unify acquisition agencies,” SpaceNews Online, October 22, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/raymond-space-force-has-a-plan-to-unify-acquisition-agencies/.

40 White House, National Space Policy of the United States of America, June 28, 2010, available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf; and White House, U.S. National Space Policy, August 31, 2006, available at https://web.archive.org/web/20101025140238/http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/national-space-policy-2006.pdf.

41 White House, National Space Policy of the United States of America, June 28, 2010,

42 The 2010 National Space Policy did direct the Secretary of Defense to, “Develop capabilities, plans, and options to deter, defend against, and, if necessary, defeat efforts to interfere with or attack U.S. or allied space systems.” Nevertheless, funding priorities and public rhetoric did not lend any seriousness to the Obama Administration’s support for measures to enable the U.S. military to fight through the “increasingly congested, contested, and competitive” space domain.

43 Department of Defense and Director of National Intelligence, National Security Space Strategy: Unclassified Summary (January 2011), pp. 1, 4. The strategy also cites the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review: “U.S. forces must be able to deter, defend against, and defeat aggression by potentially hostile nation-states. This capability is fundamental to the nation’s ability to protect its interests and to provide security in key regions.”

44 DoD and Director of National Intelligence, 2011 National Security Space Strategy, p. 10.

45 Director of National Intelligence and Department of Defense, National Space Security Strategy (Washington, D.C: Director of National Intelligence, January 2011), p. 11, available at https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2011_nationalsecurityspacestrategy.pdf. The ability to “fight through” the degradation of space systems was good, of course, but, when it came to protecting U.S. interests in space, the Obama Administration seemed to draw the line at passive defenses.

46 The White House, National Security Strategy (Washington, D.C.: The White House, May 2010), p. 39, available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf. Note the order of precedence, and how national security falls at the end of the list.

47 Broad, “How Space Became the Next ‘Great Power’ Contest Between the U.S. and China.”

48 DoD, United States Space Force, p.1.

49 As reported in Robert Burns, “Trump declares new Space Command key to American defense,” Associated Press, August 29, 2019, available at https://apnews.com/article/air-force-donald-trump-ap-top-news-politics-19f021f991844b348dc716f6f8851f7c.

50 According to Space Force Commander, General Raymond, “I have had an opportunity to talk with President Biden. The president and the vice president came over to the Pentagon and met with the Joint Chiefs, so I was there and I had an opportunity to talk about the strategic environment that we face. I was very pleased to hear that the administration came out in full support of the Space Force. It was really clear that everybody understands the importance of space to our nation and just how critical the standup of the Space Force is to stay ahead of a growing threat.” Jacqueline Feldscher and Lara Seligman, “Q&A: Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond,” Politico Online, February 26, 2021, available at https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/26/politico-pro-q-a-chief-of-space-operations-gen-jay-raymond-471646.

51 See Sandra Erwin, “Biden’s Defense Nominee Embraces View of Space as a Domain of War,” SpaceNews Online, January 19, 2021, available at https://spacenews.com/bidens-defense-nominee-embraces-view-of-space-as-a-domain-of-war/. See also Advanced Policy Questions for Lloyd J. Austin, Nominee for Appointment to be Secretary of Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee, January 2021.

52 Tony Bertuca, “Austin Promises New Defense Strategy and Extensive Reviews for Biden’s DOD,” InsideDefense.com, January 19, 2021, available at https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/austin-promises-new-defense-strategy-and-extensive-reviews-bidens-dod.

53 Theresa Hitchens, “In a First, SecDef pledges DoD to Space Norms,” Breakingdefense.com, July 19, 2021, available at https://breakingdefense.com/2021/07/exclusive-in-a-first-secdef-pledges-dod-to-space-norms/

54 Key Treaties and conventions affecting military space activities are: Charter of the United Nations, Limited (or Partial) Test Ban Treaty, Outer Space Treaty, Liability Convention, and the Registration Convention. See also Louis de Gouyon Motignon, “The Legality of Military Activities in Outer Space,” Space Legal Issues, January 24, 2019, available at https://www.spacelegalissues.com/space-law-the-legality-of-military-activities-in-outer-space/.

55 Not attributed, “An Arms Race is Brewing in Orbit,” The Economist, August 15, 2020, p. 53, available at https://www-economist-com.libproxy.ncl.ac.uk/science-and-technology/2020/08/15/an-arms-race-is-brewing-in-orbit.

56 Joanne Wheeler, “Space Debris: The Legal Issues,” Royal Aeronautical Society website, available at https://www.aerosociety.com/news/space-debris-the-legal-issues/. “Current space laws do not really address issues and liabilities relating to space debris.” See, ad for Panish Shea & Boyle LLP, “Space Law: Liability for Space Debris,” available at https://www.aviationdisasterlaw.com/liability-for-space-debris/.

57 “America needs a better understanding of what is occurring in space, what constitutes a hostile action or intent, and a fully developed plan for discussing preemption with the international community to make preemption a viable strategic option.” In Edward G. Ferguson & John J. Klein, “It’s Time for the U.S. Air Force to Prepare for Preemption in Space,” War is Boring, April 22, 2017, available at https://warisboring.com/its-time-for-the-air-force-to-prepare-for-preemption-in-space/#:∼:text=Considering.

58 Argun Makhijani, “On January 22, 2021, nuclear weapons will be illegal under international law,” Institute for Energy and Environmental Research blog, October 2020, available at https://ieer.org/news/the-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty-gets-set-to-enter-into-force/ “On January 22, 2021— 90 days after the fiftieth ratification— the nuclear ban treaty will enter into force. From that day onwards, all aspects of nuclear weapons will be illegal under international law.”

59 See, for example, Ramin Skibba, “The Ripple Effects of a Space Skirmish,” The Atlantic Online, July 12, 2020, available at https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/07/space-warfare-unregulated/614059/.

60 See Michael P. Gleason and Peter L. Hays, “A Roadmap for Assessing Space Weapons,” Aerospace.org, October 2020, available at https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Gleason-Hays_SpaceWeapons_20201006_0.pdf.

61 James N. Miller and Frank A. Rose hit all of these arguments in “Order from chaos: How space-based missile defenses could make us less safe, not more,” December 14, 2018, available at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/12/14/how-space-based-missile-defenses-could-make-us-less-safe-not-more/. See for example Laura Grego, David Wright, and Stephen Young, “The Missile Defense Space Test Bed,” Union of Concerned Scientists, May 2008, available at http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/space_weapons/policy_issues/the-missile-defense-space.html; for another rundown of the standard arguments, see Theresa Hitchens and Victoria Samson, “Space-Based Interceptors: Still Not a Good Idea,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Summer/Fall 2004, pp. 21–29.

62 See, for example, Bruce W. Macdonald, China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security, CRS No. 38 (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, September 2008), p. v, available at https://www.cfr.org/report/china-space-weapons-and-us-security.

63 “Space security depends at least as much on international cooperation as it does on national dominance.” Patrick Stewart and Kyle L. Evanoff, “The Right Way to Achieve Security in Space: The U.S. Needs to Champion International Cooperation,” Foreign Affairs, September 17, 2018, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/space/2018-09-17/right-way-achieve-security-space

64 For an excellent examination and discussion of (nuclear) deterrence strategy, especially as it relates to missile defense, see Keith B. Payne, Redefining “Stability” for the New Post-Cold War Era (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2021).

65 Colin S. Gray, Strategy and History: Essay’s on Theory and Practice (London: Routledge, 2006), p. 132; For a critique of stability theory, see Colin S. Gray “Strategic Stability Reconsidered,” Daedalus, Vol. 109, No. 4 (Fall 1980), pp. 135–154.

66 Hitchens and Samson, “Space-Based Interceptors,” p. 25. See also Michael Krepon, “Weapons in the Heavens: A Radical and Reckless Option,” Arms Control Association, November 2004, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004-11/features/weapons-space. See, for example, Aaron Bateman, “America Can Protect Its Satellites Without Kinetic Space Weapons,” WarOnTheRocks.com, July 30, 2020, available at https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/america-can-protect-its-satellites-without-kinetic-space-weapons/.

67 See, for example, Jon Harper, “Would Space-Based Interceptors Spark a New Arms Race?” National Defense Magazine, April 24, 2019, available at https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/4/24/special-report-would-space-based-interceptors-spark-a-new-arms-race.

68 Harper, “Would Space-Based Interceptors Spark a New Arms Race?.”

69 David J. Trachtenberg, Michaela Dodge, and Keith B. Payne, The “Action-Reaction Arms Race Narrative vs. Historical Realities, (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2021), available at https://nipp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/OP-6-final.pdf.

70 John Lauder, Frank Klotz and William Courtney, “How to Avoid a Space Arms Race,” The Hill Online, October 24, 2020, available at https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/522512-space-arms-control-small-steps-can-begin-to-overcome-the-obstacles. See also Nayef Al-Rodhan, “Weaponization and Outer Space Security,” GlobalPolicyJournal.com, March 12, 2018, available at https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/12/03/2018/weaponization-and-outer-space-security.

71 See write-up and video in Anthony Bouchard, “The Dangers of Space Debris Explained, labroots, December 29, 2019, available at https://www.labroots.com/trending/space/16475/dangers-space-debris-explained.

72 Micah Zenko, “Waste of Space,” Foreign Policy, April 21, 2014, available at https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/04/21/waste-of-space/.

73 2017 National Security Strategy, p. 28.

74 2018 National Defense Strategy, p. 6.

75 2018 National Military Strategy, p. 1, 2.

76 2018 National Defense Strategy, p. 8.

77 2017 National Security Strategy, p. 27.

78 2018 National Defense Strategy, pp. 5, 10.

79 2018 National Defense Strategy, pp. 4, 8, 9.

80 2018 National Defense Strategy, p. 6.

81 “The United States is deploying a layered missile defense system focused on North Korea and Iran to defend our homeland against missile attacks.” 2017 National Security Strategy, p. 8.

82 Department of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review Fact Sheet, available at file:///C:/Users/Steve/Documents/NIPP/Space%20Policy%20Project/MDR-Fact-Sheet-15-Jan-2019-UPDATED.pdf.

83 Kitay, “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy.”

84 DoD, Defense Space Strategy Summary, pp. 2, 6.

85 DoD, Defense Space Strategy Summary, pp. 7, 8. See also Kitay Briefing, June 17, 2020.

86 United States Space Force, Spacepower: Doctrine for Space Forces, August 2020, pp. 20, 22, 28, available at https://www.spaceforce.mil/Portals/1/Space%20Capstone%20Publication_10%20Aug%202020.pdf.

87 United States Space Force, Spacepower: Doctrine for Space Forces, p. 37.

88 One exception is the U.S. reliance on Russian space boosters to launch satellite payloads into geosynchronous orbit. See Loren Grush, “The Defense Department picks three companies to develop rockets for national security launches,” theverge.com, October 10, 2018, available at https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/10/17961832/defense-department-launch-service-agreement-ula-blue-origin-northrop-grumman. See also Wayne Eleazer, “The Engine Problem,” The Space Review, August 3, 2015, available at http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2799/1.

89 See, for example, Nathan Strout, “Satellites played had a starring role at Project Convergence,” C4ISRNET.com, October 12, 2020, available at https://www.c4isrnet.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2020/10/12/us-army-uses-satellites-to-affect-the-state-of-the-battlefield/.

90 Sandra Erwin, “Space Force Outreach Emphasizes Role Protecting Global Space Economy—Lt. Gen. Liquori: Access to the Space Domain is Vital to Economic Prosperity,” SpaceNews Online, September 9, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/space-force-outreach-emphasizes-role-protecting-global-space-economy/#:∼:text=Space%20Force%20outreach%20emphasizes%20role%20protecting%20global%20space%20economy,-by%20Sandra%20Erwin&text=Having%20free%20access%20to%20the,at%20the%20annual%20DefenseNews%20conference.

91 2018 National Defense Strategy, p. 3.

92 Kitay, “Defense Official Briefs Defense Space Strategy.” See also Sandra Erwin, “Top commander of U.S. space forces: Space should be peaceful, bad actors will be held accountable,” Space News, November 2, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/top-commander-of-u-s-space-forces-space-should-be-peaceful-bad-actors-will-be-held-accountable/#:∼:text=Magazine%20Subscription%20Info-,Top%20commander%20of%20U.S.%20space%20forces%3A%20Space%20should%20be%20peaceful,actors%20will%20be%20held%20accountable&text=Dickinson%3A%20%E2%80%9CWe%20have%20to%20ensure,domain%20in%20which%20to%20operate.%E2%80%9D.

93 Stew Magnuson, “News from Space Symposium: Tracking Objects in Space Both Easier, More Complicated,” National Defense, April 11, 2019, available at https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/4/11/tracking-objects-in-space-both-easier-more-complicated. Available at https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/4/11/tracking-objects-in-space-both-easier-more-complicated

94 James Dean, “Delta IV Blasts Off with Threat-Detecting Military Satellites,” Florida Today, August 19, 2016, available at http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2016/08/19/deltaiv-rocket-blasts-off-air-force-satellites-cape-canaveral-air-force-station-afspc6/88826330/.

95 Sandra Erwin, “Space Surveillance Technologies a Top Need for U.S. Military,” Space News Online, November 22, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/space-surveillance-technologies-a-top-need-for-u-s-military/#:∼:text=Gen.,-John%20Raymond%20said&text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%94%20Space%20tracking%20sensors%20and,U.S.%20Space%20Command%2C%20officials%20said.

96 Nathan Strout, “The Space Force Doesn’t Want to Send a Human to Do a Robot’s Job,” C4ISRNET.com, September 29, 2020, available at https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/09/29/no-the-space-force-wont-be-sending-humans-into-space-anytime-soon/. See also Bill Gertz, “Second Defector’s Knowledge of Chinese Bioweapons Reaches U.S.: Esper on Space Threats,” Washington Times Online, September 16, 2020, available at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/16/second-china-defector-gives-biological-weapons-inf/.

97 Nathan Strout, “The Space Force Wants to Use Directed Energy Systems for Space Superiority,” C4ISRNET.com, July 10, 2021, available at https://www.crows.org/news/569986/The-Space-Force-wants-to-use-directed-energy-systems-for-space-superiority.htm

98 Eric Heginbotham, et al., The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996-2017 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), pp. 238–41.

99 Author interview with Maj Gen Nina Armagno, Air Force Space Command, February 27, 2017.

100 Defense Science Board, Task Force on Military Satellite Communication and Tactical Networking: Executive Summary, March 2017, available at http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2010s/DSB-MilSatCom-FINALExecutiveSummary_UNCLASSIFIED.pdf. Not to go unnoticed in the report is the vulnerability of the current ground network architecture to jamming. See also Rachel S. Cohen, “SPACECOM Boss Talks Wielding, Defending Satellites in Combat,” Air Force Magazine Online, November 6, 2020, available at https://www.airforcemag.com/spacecom-boss-talks-wielding-defending-satellites-in-combat/.

101 Cited in Jim Sciutto, “US Military Prepares for the Next Frontier: Space War,” CNN, November 29, 2016, available at http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/politics/space-war-us-military-preparations/.

102 2017 National Security Strategy, p. 31.

103 Spacepower: Doctrine for Space Forces, p. 44. Italics in original.

104 Doug Loverro, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, “Space Warfighting Readiness: Policies, Authorities, and Capabilities,” Statement before the House Armed Services Committee, March 14, 2018.

105 Sandra Erwin, “U.S. Space Force unveils doctrine explaining its role in national security,” Space News, August 10, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/u-s-space-force-unveils-doctrine-explaining-its-role-in-national-security/. See also Gen. John Raymond, “Media Roundtable with U.S. Space Command Commander Gen. John Raymond,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 29, 2019, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/1949346/media-roundtable-with-us-space-command-commander-gen-john-raymond/ See also Katrina Manson and Christian Shepherd, “US Military Officials Eye New Generation of Space Weapons: Pentagon Planners Worry About China’s Extraterrestrial Advances—Including its Version of GPS,” Financial Times, September 2, 2020, available at https://www.ft.com/content/d44aa332-f564-4b4a-89b7-1685e4579e72.

106 C. Todd Lopez, “Time to Move Forward with Space Force, Air Force Secretary Says,” U.S. Department of Defense News, December 8, 2019, available at https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2034790/time-to-move-forward-with-space-force-air-force-secretary-says/.

107 See Lambakis, Foreign Space Capabilities, pp. 64–71.

108 Former Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson has stated that, “there may come a point where we demonstrate some capabilities so that our adversaries understand that they will not be able to deny us the use of space without consequences.” Aaron Bateman, “America Can Protect Its Satellites Without Kinetic Space Weapons,” WarOnTheRocks.com, July 30, 2020, available at https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/america-can-protect-its-satellites-without-kinetic-space-weapons/.

109 General John E. Hyten, USAF, Hudson Institute Holds Webinar on National Defense Strategy (August 12, 2020), available at https://www.hudson.org/events/1853-video-event-general-john-e-hyten-on-progress-and-challenges-implementing-the-national-defense-strategy82020.

110 For an opposing viewpoint, see Jim Cooper, “Updating Space Doctrine: How To Avoid World War III,” WarOnTheRocks.com, July 23, 2021, available at https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/updating-space-doctrine-how-to-avoid-world-war-iii/

111 See, for example, Jonathan Shainin, “Rods from God,” The New York Times, December 10, 2006, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/10/magazine/10section3a.t-9.html, and Larry G. Sills, Space-based Global Strike: Understanding Strategic and Military Implications, August 2001 available at https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a407068.pdf.

112 Bill Gertz, “Second defector’s knowledge of Chinese bioweapons reaches U.S.: Esper on Space Threats,” Washington Times Online, September 16, 2020. Available at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/16/second-china-defector-gives-biological-weapons-inf/.

113 2017 National Security Strategy, p. 31. This statement would be strengthened by including “purposeful and” before “harmful.” See also National Space Policy, December 9, 2020, pp. 3, 4, and 9.

114 “When asked when the Space Force might field offensive weapons, Raymond demurred but insisted the United States considers space a vital national security interest.” See Abraham Mahshie, “Gen. Jay Raymond Previews Space Operations Command Stand Up,” Washington Examiner Online, October 21, 2020, available at https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/exclusive-gen-jay-raymond-previews-space-operations-command-stand-up.

115 Terms like ‘space superiority’ are politically problematic. Russia and China will use them to falsely claim that the United States is responsible for ‘weaponizing’ outer space, even though it is those countries that are aggressively developing and deploying anti-satellite weapons.” Frank A. Rose, “The U.S. Defense Space Strategy works on paper, but will it be implemented?” Brookings.edu, July 6, 2020, available at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/07/06/the-u-s-defense-space-strategy-works-on-paper-but-will-it-be-implemented/.

116 First Lincoln-Douglas debate, Ottawa, Illinois, August 21, 1858, in Roy P. Basler, ed., The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1953), pp. 12–30.

117 Raymond, “Space Dominance Requires Taking Technology and Policy Risks.”

118 Aaron Mehta, “Increasing allied role in space a ‘priority’ for Space Command head,” DefenseNews.com, September 3, 2019, available at https://www.defensenews.com/space/2019/09/03/increasing-allied-role-in-space-a-priority-for-space-command-head/.

119 General Raymond: “Our desire is to deter conflict from either beginning or extending into space. To do that deterrence, you have to change the calculus of your opponent. And to do that, you have to be able to talk and you have to be able to message.” Courtney Albon, “Hyten: ‘I’m going to be unbelievably loud’ about space overclassification,” InsideDefense.com, November 20, 2020, available at https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/hyten-im-going-be-unbelievably-loud-about-space-overclassification.

120 See also Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and American Bar Association, Three Neglected Space Issues: Laser ASATs, Cooperation with Russia and China, and Space Secrecy—Workshop Report, July 2020, pp. 16–24, available at npolicy.org/article_file/July_2020_Space_Policy_Workshop.pdf.

121 Andrew Foxall, “China and Russia are seeking to conquer space itself in their shadow war against the West,” The Telegraph Online (UK), November 21, 2019, available at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/21/china-russia-seeking-conquer-space-shadow-war-against-west/; Theresa Hitchens, “Space Force Reaches Out To New Partners-Eye on China, BreakingDefense.com, January 13, 2021, available at https://breakingdefense.com/2021/01/space-force-reaches-out-to-new-partners-eye-on-china/. For an ally viewpoint, see Danielle Sheridan, “Russia and China Pose ‘Daily’ Space Threat,” Daily Telegraph (UK), July 30, 2021, available at https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-daily-telegraph/20210730/281496459322235

122 Abraham Mahshie, “Space Command’s Gen. Raymond Cites Allies’ Space Commands and Partnerships,” Washington Examiner Online, October 22, 2020, available at https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/exclusive-space-commands-gen-raymond-cites-allies-space-commands-and-partnerships. See also Theresa Hitchens, “Space Command Widens Embrace Of Allies,” BreakingDefense.com, November 5, 2020, available at https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/space-command-widens-embrace-of-allies/. See also Joshua Posaner, “U.S. Space Force seeking alliances in Europe to guard orbit,” Politico Europe, July 22, 2021.

123 For an excellent summary of these issues, see Mark Pomerleau, “Info-sharing Hurdles Hinder Alliance Partnerships,” C4ISRNET.com, August 7, 2016, available at https://www.c4isrnet.com/videos/2016/08/07/info-sharing-hurdles-hinder-alliance-partnerships/.

124 Theresa Hitchens, “US, Allies Agree On Threats In Space But Struggle With Messaging,” Breaking Defense, September 11, 2020.

125 Lambakis, On the Edge of Earth, pp. 211–220. Although Eisenhower did flirt in public with the notion that space should remain a sanctuary for peaceful and scientific purposes (putting him at odds at times with his military advisors), U.S. policy even in these early days did recognize that nations could do other nations harm in space.

126 “Russia is making considerable gains, and our operational advantage is shrinking.” “China continues to develop a variety of counterspace capabilities designed to limit or prevent an adversary’s use of its space-based assets during a crisis or conflict.” Gina Harkins, “Space Wars: Why Top Military Leaders Say U.S. Must Prep for Battles Beyond Earth,” Military.com, August 24, 2020, available at https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/24/space-wars-why-top-military-leaders-say-us-must-prep-battles-beyond-earth.html. Sandra Erwin, “U.S. SPACECOM nominee Dickinson says countries must be held accountable for actions in space,” SpaceNews Online, July 28, 2020, available at https://spacenews.com/u-s-spacecom-nominee-dickinson-says-countries-must-be-held-accountable-for-actions-in-space/.

127 A senior Defense Department advocate for U.S. military space capabilities testified before Congress about the growing threats to the U.S. space system but did not specifically address the need for space control capabilities; but rather, he spoke vaguely about the need to “accelerate the development and fielding of military space capabilities necessary to ensure U.S. and allied and partner technological and military advantages.” Kenneth Rapuano, ASD for Homeland Defense and Global Security, written testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, March 11, 2020, p. 6, available at https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20200311/110692/HHRG-116-AS00-Wstate-RapuanoK-20200311.pdf.

128 Former Strategic Defense Initiative Organization Director Cooper cites then-Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Michael Griffin, as saying: “I get tired of hearing how it could cost $100-or-more billion to put up a space-based interceptor layer. The entire cost of a system with 1,000 SBIs could come in at about $20 billion.” Henry F. Cooper, “Space-Based Interceptors: The Price Is Right!”, Newsmax, April 23, 2019, available at https://www.newsmax.com/henryfcooper/brilliant-pebbles-price-estimate-space-defense/2019/04/23/id/912964/.

129 Raymond, “Space dominance requires taking technology and policy risks.” See also Manson and Shepherd, “US military officials eye new generation of space weapons” and Aaron Bateman, “America Can Protect Its Satellites Without Kinetic Space Weapons,” WarOnTheRocks.com, July 30, 2020, available at https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/america-can-protect-its-satellites-without-kinetic-space-weapons/.

130 See for example, the remarks of Army National Guard Maj. Gen. Tim Lawson in Jon Harper, “Space Command Hints at New Capabilities to Counter China, Russia,” National Defense Magazine Online, August 21, 2020, available at https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/8/21/us-space-command-hints-at-new-capabilities-to-counter-china-russia.

131 Cited in Hitchens, “Raymond Urges NATO Space Ops; Europeans Fear Offensive Missions.”

132 Sandra Erwin, “Space Force Eyes Closer Ties with Civil Space: ‘It’s Good for Taxpayers,’” SpaceNews Online, February 3, 2021, available at https://spacenews.com/space-force-eyes-closer-ties-with-civil-space-its-good-for-taxpayers/.

133 Abraham Mahshie, “Space Warfighters Essential to ‘American Way of life’ and ‘American way of war,’ says Gen. Jay Raymond,” Washington Examiner, October 27, 2020, available at https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/space-warfighters-essential-to-american-way-of-life-and-american-way-of-war-says-gen-jay-raymond.

134 The Space Force has begun to talk about it interest in pursuing directed energy systems to protect U.S. satellites. Nathan Strout, “The Space Force wants to use directed energy systems for space superiority.”

135 Cited in Nathan Strout, “Barrett, Rogers Plan to Declassify Black Space Programs,” Defense News Online, December 7, 2019, available at https://www.defensenews.com/smr/reagan-defense-forum/2019/12/08/barrett-rogers-plan-to-declassify-black-space-programs/.

136 Hitchens, “Raymond Urges NATO Space Ops; Europeans Fear Offensive Missions.”

137 International understanding and agreement of what constitutes unsafe, irresponsible, or threatening behavior in space is nascent. See Defense Space Strategy, p. 4.

138 Raymond, “Space Dominance Requires Taking Technology and Policy Risks.”

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Notes on contributors

Steve Lambakis

Steve Lambakis ([email protected]) is the Editor-in-Chief of Comparatives Strategy and a defense analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy. He is also a defense analyst at the Strategic Alliance Business Group and speechwriter for the Director of the Missile Defense Agency.