Asia in a global war

Abstract

This article discusses the role of Asia in a future large‐scale war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Soviet military buildup in the Far East and Asia's growing economic importance have led some observers to suggest that Asia rather than Europe may become the locus for a future U.S.‐Soviet war. In spite of these changes, however, a “big” U.S.‐Soviet war remains less likely to arise in Asia through escalation of local conflicts in the Far East than through the spread of clashes originating elsewhere, e.g., in Europe or the Persian Gulf. There are a number of reasons, historical and strategic, for thinking that the Soviet Union would not deliberately attack U.S. forces or allies in the Far East in a war that had begun outside of Asia. The United States is therefore likely itself to face the choice of whether to expand a European or South West Asian conflict to the Far East. This can be done in a number of ways, for example, through attacks on Soviet naval forces in the Sea of Okhotsk (as envisioned in the U.S. Navy's Maritime Strategy) or through air strikes against targets in the Soviet Far East. Opening up a second front in the Far East is likely to offer the United States concrete operational advantages, but will generate only a limited amount of politically useful leverage against the U.S.S.R. in a global conflict. Such a strategy is likely to face strong political opposition in Japan (which is crucial to U.S. ability to carry out operations against the Soviet Union), and may have unintended escalatory consequences. The article concludes that it would be preferable to concentrate on a strategy to delink the Far East from an ex‐traregional conflict and to concentrate military planning on the defense of U.S. forces and allies in the area rather than offensive missions.