Nuclear proliferation and nuclear reversal in South Asia

Abstract

This article assesses prospects for nuclear proliferation reversal in India and Pakistan by examining previous case studies of nuclear reversal (South Africa, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil) and drawing comparisons with the positions of the two South Asian powers. In the six cases of nuclear reversal, change became possible when national leaders became convinced that the security threats to the nation did not require a nuclear deterrent and when there were economic incentives for abandoning nuclear weapons. Neither of these conditions applies to India or Pakistan. However, both countries have a shared history of negotiation and compromise that can lead to agreement on smaller issues, thereby building trust.