The Prediction of Tertiary Success: A Cautionary Note

Abstract

Currently, the demand for places in Australian tertiary education exceeds the supply, and in general, applicants are offered places according to their academic merit. The extent to which previous academic performance predicts future tertiary success is often taken as an indicator of the validity of the selection process. In this note, a number of factors that tend to depress correlations between pre‐teritary and tertiary achievement scores are identified and discussed. Most of these factors have been known for decades but are nevertheless not widely appreciated. The result is that efforts to evaluate selection processes are often misdirected. Predictive validity has, of course, to remain an important consideration in devising admissions rules and policies. But too narrow a focus on predictive validity tends to relegate to the background several other important aspects, especially those having to do with justice and fairness in the selection process and with the availability of places in relation to the demand for them. The purpose of this note is to show that trying to achieve high predictive validities is a futile exercise.

Notes

∗ Dr Royce Sadler is a Senior Lecturer in Education at the University of Queensland.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Royce Sadler∗

∗ Dr Royce Sadler is a Senior Lecturer in Education at the University of Queensland.