The validity of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for a small economy in transition: the case of Slovenia

Abstract

The paper estimates the validity of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model in the case of the Slovenian economy with a cointegration approach. Three main conclusions can be drawn from the analysis. First, the results identified a long-run relationship between real gross domestic product and variables of real exports. Second, as the results from the basic model suggest, to ease the pressure from the balance-of-payments constraints on output growth, shifts in elasticities of export and import flows are required. Third, owing to the reported modernization needs of the Slovenian economy, persistence of import patterns, and empirically documented strong dependence of exports on sufficient imports, manipulation of export demand seems to be more justified.

Keywords:

• balance of payments
• economic growth
• exports