Real Estate valuation and forecasting in non-homogeneous markets: A case study in Greece during the financial crisis

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an automatic valuation model for property valuation using a large database of historical prices from Greece. The Greek property market is an inefficient, non-homogeneous market, still at its infancy and governed by lack of information. As a result modelling the Greek real estate market is a very interesting and challenging problem. The available data cover a wide range of properties across time and include the financial crisis period in Greece which led to tremendous changes in the dynamics of the real estate market. We formulate and compare linear and non-linear models based on regression, hedonic equations and artificial neural networks. The forecasting ability of each method is evaluated out-of-sample. Special care is given on measuring the success of the forecasts but also on identifying the property characteristics that lead to large forecasting errors. Finally, by examining the strengths and the performance of each method we apply a combined forecasting rule to improve forecasting accuracy. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology constitutes an accurate tool for property valuation in a non-homogeneous, newly developed market.

Keywords:

• Forecasting
• property valuation
• real estate
• neural networks

Acknowledgements

This project was funded by the Eurobank Property Services S.A. The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their constructive comments that helped to substantially improve the final version of this paper.

Notes

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.