Optimising structure in a networked Lanchester model for fires and manoeuvre in warfare

Abstract

We present a generalisation of the classical Lanchester model for directed fire between two combat forces but now employing networks for the manoeuvre of Blue and Red forces, and the pattern of engagement between the two. The model therefore integrates fires between dispersed elements, as well as manoeuvre through an internal-to-each-side diffusive interaction. We explain the model with several simple examples, including cases where conservation laws hold. We then apply an optimisation approach where, for a fixed-in-structure adversary, we optimise the internal manoeuvre and external engagement structures where the trade-off between maximising damage on the adversary and minimising own-losses can be examined. In the space of combat outcomes this leads to a sequence of transitions from defeat to stalemate and then to victory for the force with optimised networks. Depending on the trade-off between destruction and self-preservation, the optimised networks develop a number of structures including the appearance of so-called sacrificial nodes, that may be interpreted as feints, manoeuvre hubs, and suppressive fires. We discuss these in light of Manoeuvre Warfare theory.

Keywords:

• Warfighting
• mathematical model
• dynamics
• networks
• manoeuvre
• optimisation

Acknowledgements

We are grateful for discussions with Ryan Ahern, Sharon Boswell, and Brandon Pincombe. This work was conducted under the auspices of DST’s Modelling Complex Warfighting Initiative.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

MB acknowledges partial support from IES-R2-192206 and the Alan Turing pilot project ID 519465. The simulations reported here were run on the supercomputer IRIDIS5 at the University of Southampton.