The Accuracy of International Trade Data: The Case of Southeast Asian Countries

Abstract

Among available economic data of less developed countries, foreign trade statistics are known to be most reliable and are used extensively. This paper, concentrating on Southeast Asian countries, examines the extent and variation of discrepancy in export and import recordings of their own and of their trading partners. The ratio of corresponding trade records exhibit varying heights and irregular patterns suggesting a larger degree of inaccuracy than generally assumed. Inter-Asian trade of Southeast Asian countries show a greater discrepancy than that of their trade with developed countries, and the trade ratio variance of the former is significantly larger than that of the latter at the 5% level. The rank coefficient of correlation between the level of discrepancy and the absolute size of trade value is found to be insignificant for most countries. Also the adjustment of trade figures by exchange rate overvaluation does not narrow the inconsistency in the bilateral trade recordings. The recordings of commodity-by-country trade data show a larger discrepancy than that of total trade.