An Econometric Analysis of Wilderness Area Use

Abstract

Although outdoor recreational use fluctuates daily, this time-varying feature has received little attention by economists and statisticians. In this paper, wilderness recreational use relationships are estimated, based on daily observations over the length of a given season, by (i) traditional econometric techniques and via (ii) time series analysis procedures promoted by Box and Jenkins [3]. In applying both sets of estimated relationships for forecasting purposes, the econometric equations generally proved superior. However, when predictions from both sets of equations were combined, the resulting forecasts obtained proved more accurate than either of the separate forecasts.