Bayesian Analysis and Mapping of Mortality Rates for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Abstract

This article summarizes our research on estimation of age-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for white males. Our objectives are more precise and informative displays (than previously available) of geographic variation of the age-specific mortality rates for COPD, and investigation of the relationships between the geographic variation in mortality rates and the corresponding variation in selected covariates. For a given age class, our estimates are displayed in a choropleth map of mean rates. We develop a variation map that identifies the geographical areas where inferences are reliable. Here, the variation is measured by considering a set of maps produced using samples from the posterior distribution of the population mortality rates. Finally, we describe the spatial patterns in the age-specific maps and relate these to patterns in potential explanatory covariates such as smoking rate, annual rainfall, population density, elevation, and measures of air quality.

Key Words:

• Diagnostics for nonlinear Bayes models
• Disease mapping
• Hierarchical models
• Mortality modelling
• Poisson distribution