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Blakeley B. McShane Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 60611

Shane T. Jensen The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104

Allan I. Pack Center for Sleep and Circadian Neurobiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104

Abraham J. Wyner The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104

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Notes

The ordinary probability estimates beat those of the two semioracles across a wide variety of simulation settings. The results for classification error and classification error relative to the Bayes’ Rule are qualitatively similar.

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