Defending Taiwan: But … What Are the Costs?

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Notes

1 Terri Moon Cronk, “Testimony: DOD is Laser Focused on China Pacing Challenge, Meeting Our Commitments Under the Taiwan Relations Act,” U.S. Department of Defense, December 7, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2867003/testimony-dod-is-laser-focused-on-china-pacing-challenge-meeting-our-commitment/.

2 Ted Galen Carpenter, “The Bipartisan Race to be Tough on China,” CATO Institute, November 9, 2022, https://www.cato.org/commentary/bipartisan-race-be-tough-china.

3 Thomas J. Christensen, M. Taylor Fravel, Bonnie S. Glaser, Andrew J. Nathan, Jessica Chen Weiss, “How to Avoid a War Over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, October 13, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-avoid-war-over-taiwan; Elbridge Colby, “America Must Prepare for a War Over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, August 10, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-must-prepare-war-over-taiwan.

4 Katie Bo Lillis, Michael Conte, Jennifer Hansler, and Veronica Stracqualursi, “US Intelligence Officials warn China is ‘working hard’ to be able to take over Taiwan Militarily,” CNN, May 10, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/politics/avril-haines-china-taiwan/index.html.

5 Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 14, 2021, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/countering-china-s-adventurism-over-taiwan-third-way-0.

6 Caitlin Talmadge and Brendan Rittenhouse Green, “Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan,” International Security 47, no. 1 (2022): 7-45, https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/47/1/7/112577/Then-What-Assessing-the-Military-Implications-of?redirectedFrom=fulltext.

7 Porter and Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan.”

8 Richard Haass and David Sacks, “American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous,” Foreign Affairs, September 2, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.

9 Iain Henry, Reliability and Alliance Interdependence: The United States and its Allies in Asia, 1949-1969 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2022), https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501765544/reliability-and-alliance-interdependence/; Haas and Sacks, “American Support for Taiwan Must be Unambiguous.”

10 Elbridge Colby, “Why Protecting Taiwan Really Matters to the U.S.,” Time, October 11, 2022, https://time.com/6221072/why-protecting-taiwan-really-matters-to-the-u-s/.

11 Kristina Garcia, “Five Things to Know about the Taiwan-China Conflict,” Penn Today, August 8, 2022, https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/five-things-know-about-taiwan-china-conflict.

12 Chuck Todd, “Full McCaul: ‘Best deterrence’ to Xi in Taiwan is failure for Putin in Ukraine,” Meet the Press, NBC, April 8, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/full-mccaul-best-deterrence-to-xi-in-taiwan-is-failure-for-putin-in-ukraine-168539205870.

13 Christopher McCallion, “Semiconductors are not a reason to defend Taiwan,” Defense Priorities, October 5, 2022, https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/semiconductors-are-not-a-reason-to-defend-taiwan.

14 “McCaul: ‘Best deterrence’ to Xi in Taiwan is failure for Putin in Ukraine,” NBC News, April 8, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.

15 Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap,” Foreign Affairs, August 18, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition; Jessica Chen Weiss, “Is America’s China Policy too Hawkish?,” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/live/is-americas-china-policy-too-hawkish/.

16 Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press, “Reality Check: American Power in an Age of Constraints,” Foreign Affairs, February 10, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-02-10/reality-check; Nicholas Miller, Twitter, March 4, 2022, https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1499775813180399617; Joshua Shifrinson, Tweet, June 7, 2023, https://twitter.com/shifrinson/status/1666486695116562446.

17 Niharika Mandhana, “China is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says,” Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-capable-of-blockading-taiwan-u-s-navy-commander-says-11663585457.

18 Ying Yu Lin, “The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis: What did the August Exercises Around Taiwan Accomplish,” Jamestown Foundation, China Brief 22, no. 18 (October 4, 2022), https://jamestown.org/program/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-what-did-the-august-exercises-around-taiwan-accomplish/.

19 Laura Kelly, “’Resupply is not an option’: Lawmakers wargame invasion of Taiwan,” Hill, April 20, 2023, https://thehill.com/policy/international/3960945-lawmakers-wargame-chinese-invasion-taiwan/.

20 Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2023, https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ.

21 Lonnie D. Henley, “China Maritime Report No. 26: Beyond the First Battle: Overcoming a Protracted Blockade of Taiwan,” China Maritime Studies Institute, China Maritime Reports 26, 2023, https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=cmsi-maritime-reports.

22 Cancian, Cancian, and Heginbotham, “The First Battle of the Next War.”

23 “Availability and Use of Aircraft in the Air Force and Navy,” Congressional Budget Office, January 5, 2022, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57433.

24 “Tactical Aircraft Investments: DOD Needs Additional Portfolio Analysis to Inform Future Budget Decisions,” Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Committees, December 2022, https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106375.pdf; John A. Tirpak, “Lockheed Will Miss Its Goal for F-35 Deliveries in 2023,” Air and Space Forces Magazine, April 18, 2023, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-miss-goal-f-35-deliveries-2023/.

25 Loren Thompson, “Building Burke Destroyers to 2030 (And Beyond) Is the Only Practical Way to Bolster Surface Fleet Firepower,” Forbes, September 21, 2021, https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2021/09/21/building-burke-destroyers-to-2030-and-beyond-is-the-only-practical-way-to-bolster-surface-fleet-firepower/.

26 Department of the Navy, Navy 2024 Shipbuilding Plan, March 30, 2023, https://www.govexec.com/media/navy_2024_shipbuilding_plan.pdf.

27 Mallory Shelbourne, “OSD Comptroller Says U.S Shipyards Can’t Build 3 Destroyers a Year,” USNI News, March 21, 2023, https://news.usni.org/2023/03/21/osd-comptroller-says-u-s-shipyards-cant-build-3-destroyers-a-year.

28 Stacie Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser, and Chris Dougherty, “Dangerous Straits: Wargaming a Future Conflict Over Taiwan,” Center for New American Security, June 2022, https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/CNAS±Report-Dangerous±Straits-Defense-Jun±2022-FINAL-print.pdf.

29 Joseph Trevithick, “Alarming Navy Intel Slide Warns of China’s 200 Times Greater Shipbuilding Capacity,” Drive, July 11, 2023, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/alarming-navy-intel-slide-warns-of-chinas-200-times-greater-shipbuilding-capacity.

30 “U.S. Trade with China,” Office of Technology Evaluation, 2021, https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/country-papers/2971-2021-statistical-analysis-of-u-s-trade-with-china/file.

31 “U.S. Trade with China,” Office of Technology Evaluation, 2021.

32 Szymon Kardas, “Conscious uncoupling: Europeans’ Russian gas challenge in 2023,” European Council on Foreign Relations,” European Council on Foreign Relations, February 13, 2023, https://ecfr.eu/article/conscious-uncoupling-europeans-russian-gas-challenge-in-2023/.

33 Benjamin Brimelow, “New Pentagon charts lay out China’s growing military advantage over Taiwan,” Insider, January 18, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-charts-show-chinas-military-advantage-over-taiwan-2022-1.

34 World Shipping Council, “The Top 50 Container Ports,” accessed August 28, 2023, https://www.worldshipping.org/top-50-ports.

35 Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, and Reva Goujon, “Global Economic Disruptions from a Taiwan Conflict,” Rhodium Group, December 14, 2022, https://rhg.com/research/taiwan-economic-disruptions/.

36 Hugh Rockoff, “From Plowshares to Swords: The American Economy in World War II,” National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1995, https://www.nber.org/papers/h0077.

37 Tax Foundation, “Historical U.S. Federal Individual Income Tax Rates & Brackets, 1862-2021, August 24, 2021, https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/.

38 Federal Government Tax and Revenue Chart, accessed August 28, 2023, https://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/revenue_chart_1792_2016USp_24s1li011lcny_10fG0fF0f.

39 Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” 2022, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF.

40 Emma Helfrich and Tyler Rogoway, “More Details on China’s Exotic Orbital Hypersonic Weapon Come to Light,” Drive, November 30, 2022, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/more-details-on-chinas-exotic-orbital-hypersonic-weapon-come-to-light.

41 Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” 2022.

42 Ankit Panda, “Introducing the DF-17: China’s Newly Tested Ballistic Missile Armed with a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle,” Diplomat, December 28, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/introducing-the-df-17-chinas-newly-tested-ballistic-missile-armed-with-a-hypersonic-glide-vehicle/.

43 Steve Prentice, “Cyber Security Headlines: Canadian breaches increase, new China backdoor, kinetic warfare threat,” CISO Series, June 23, 2023, https://cisoseries.com/cyber-security-headlines-canadian-breaches-increase-new-china-backdoor-kinetic-warfare-threat/.

44 Raul Pedrozo, “China’s Container Missile Deployments Could Violate the Law of Naval Warfare,” International Law Studies, U.S. Naval War College 97 (2021), https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ils/vol97/iss1/45/; Fan Wei and Cao Siqi in Zhuhai, “China debuts container-type missile launch system; weapon can ‘effectively improve defense capabilities of coastal countries,” Global Times, November 12, 2022, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279349.shtml/.

45 Tariq Tahir and The Sun, “China ‘hiding’ missiles for surprise attacks,” News.com, December 8, 2021, https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-feared-to-be-hiding-missiles-in-shipping-containers-for-trojan-horsestyle-plan-to-launch-attack-anywhere-in-world/news-story/13fc4afed5770a250d9f0644435e5566.

46 Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” 2023, VI, https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF.

47 Hal Brands, “In the Next War, America’s Homeland Will be a Target,” Bloomberg, December 15, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-15/china-russia-or-north-korea-would-strike-u-s-homeland-in-a-war.

48 John Speed Meyers, “Mainland Strikes and U.S. Military Strategy Towards China: Historical Cases, Interviews, and a Scenario-Based Survey of American National Security Elites,” RAND Corporation, 2019, https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD430.html.

49 Joshua Rovner, “Two kinds of catastrophe: nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia,” Journal of Strategic Studies 40, no. 5 (2017), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2017.1293532.

50 Barry Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991), https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt1xx51d.

51 Caitlin Talmadge, “Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Regional War with the United States,” International Security 41, no. 4 (2017): 50-92, https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/41/4/50/12156/Would-China-Go-Nuclear-Assessing-the-Risk-of?redirectedFrom=fulltext#.WP-7sWkrK70.

52 Vipin Narang and Scott Sagan (eds)., The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2022).

53 Sydney Freedberg JR, “’US Gets its Ass Handed to It’ In Wargames: Here’s a $24 Billion Fix,” Breaking Defense, March 7, 2019, https://breakingdefense.com/2019/03/us-gets-its-ass-handed-to-it-in-wargames-heres-a-24-billion-fix/.

54 Michael O’Hanlon, “Can China take Taiwan? Why no one really knows,” Brookings, August 2022, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-china-take-taiwan-why-no-one-really-knows/.

55 Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Peace and Power (New York: Alfred Knopf 1962).