European Strategic Autonomy: The Path to a Geopolitical Europe

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Notes

1 Kelly A. Grieco and Marie Jourdain, “To Strengthen NATO, the U.S. Should Embrace EU Defense,” World Politics Review, July 11, 2023, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-europe-security-eu-strategic-autonomy-defense-us/.

2 Ulrike Franke and Tara Varma, “Independence play: Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy,” European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), July 18, 2019, https://ecfr.eu/special/independence_play_europes_pursuit_of_strategic_autonomy/.

3 Aitor Hernandez-Morales, “Germany confirms that Trump tried to buy firm working on coronavirus vaccine,” Politico, March 15, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20article%2C%20Trump,%E2%80%9Cfor%20the%20U.S.%20only.%E2%80%9D.

4 “Peter Navarro on how US is fighting the spread of coronavirus,” Fox News, February 23, 2020, https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/peter-navarro-on-how-us-is-fighting-the-spread-of-coronavirus.

5 Cat Contiguglia, “Trump: EU is one of United States’ biggest foes,” Politico, July 15, 2018, https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-putin-russia-europe-one-of-united-states-biggest-foes/.

6 Jonathan Hackenbroich, Jeremy Shapiro, and Tara Varma, “Health Sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics,” European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), June 29, 2020, https://ecfr.eu/publication/health_sovereignty_how_to_build_a_resilient_european_response_to_pandemics/.

7 Mark Scott, Laura Kayali, and Laurens Cerulus, “European Commission accuses China of peddling disinformation,” Politico, June 10, 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-disinformation-china-coronavirus/; European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), "Covid-19," last consulted February 26, 2024, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19.

8 European Commission, “Ensuring the availability of supplies and equipment,” May 2021, https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/coronavirus-response/public-health/ensuring-availability-supplies-and-equipment_en#:~:text=the%20coronavirus%20pandemic-,Availability%20of%20medical%20equipment,public%20health%20and%20patient%20safety.

9 Andreas Eisl and Mattia Tomay, “European debt mutualisation,” Institut Jacques Delors, July 15, 2020, https://institutdelors.eu/en/publications/european-debt-mutualisation-2/.

10 Neil Irwin, “How Germany Prevailed in the Greek Bailout,” New York Times, June 29, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/world/europe/how-germany-prevailed-in-the-greek-bailout.html.

11 “Ukraine crisis: Biden warns Russia may invade next month,” BBC News, January 28, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60164537.

12 Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, “Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart),” European Council on Foreign Relations, March 16, 2023, https://ecfr.eu/publication/fragile-unity-why-europeans-are-coming-together-on-ukraine/.

13 NATO Secretary General, “NATO and the EU stand with the brave people of Ukraine,” February 24, 2022, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_192397.htm.

14 European Commission, “EU agrees 10th package of sanctions against Russia,” February 25, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1185.

15 European External Action Service, “The European Peace Facility,” July 12, 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/european-peace-facility_en.

16 European Council, “EU joint procurement of ammunition and missiles for Ukraine: Council agrees €1 billion support under the European Peace Facility,” May 5, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/05/05/eu-joint-procurement-of-ammunition-and-missiles-for-ukraine-council-agrees-1-billion-support-under-the-european-peace-facility/; European Commission, “Defence: €500 million and new measures to urgently boost EU defence industry capacities in ammunition production,” May 3, 2023, https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/defence-eu500-million-and-new-measures-urgently-boost-eu-defence-industry-capacities-ammunition-2023-05-03_en.

17 Constanze Stelzenmuller et. al, “Lessons for Ukraine,” Brookings Institution, February 24, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/lessons-from-ukraine/.

18 Constanze Stelzenmuller, “Germany’s policy shift is real but still falls short,” Financial Times, February 13, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/cd19430d-8506-4e16-9c43-c341accc6547.

19 Olivier Schmitt, “Pourquoi Poutine est notre allié » (Hikari Editions, 2017), https://www.academia.edu/35107573/Pourquoi_Poutine_est_notre_Alli%C3%A9; David Cadier and Martin Quencez, “France‘s policy shift on Ukraine‘s NATO membership,” War on the Rocks, August 10, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/frances-policy-shift-on-ukraines-nato-membership/.

20 Emmanuel Rivière, “Comment le soutien à l’Ukraine façonne les opinions publiques européennes [How support for Ukraine shapes European Public Opinions],” Grand Continent, June 14, 2023, https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2023/06/14/comment-le-soutien-a-lukraine-faconne-les-opinions-publiques-europeennes/.

21 Vessela Tcherneva, “Easy prey? Russia’s influence in Bulgaria,” European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), February 8, 2023, https://ecfr.eu/article/easy-prey-russias-influence-in-bulgaria/; Zsuzsanna Végh, “Alignment or isolation: Hungary’s foreign policy after its parliamentary election,” European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), March 31, 2022, https://ecfr.eu/article/alignment-or-isolation-hungarys-foreign-policy-after-its-parliamentary-election/.

22 Mark Leonard and Tara Varma, “How Putin’s war is shaping France’s election,” Mark’s World in 30 Minutes, March 9, 2022, https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/how-putins-war-is-shaping-frances-election/; Hannah Roberts and Giorgio Leali, “Giorgia Meloni’s Putin play,” Politico, June 22, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-valdimir-putin-italy/.

23 “France's ex-president Sarkozy slammed for call to ‘compromise’ with Russia,” France24, August 17, 2023, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230817-france-s-sarkozy-blasted-for-call-to-compromise-with-russia.

24 Maegan Vasquez, “Trump calls the European Union a ‘foe’ of the United States,” CNN, July 16, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/15/politics/donald-trump-european-union-foe/index.html.

25 Joseph S. Nye Jr, “If Trump returns,” Project Syndicate, May 31, 2023, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-2024-election-us-foreign-policy-by-joseph-s-nye-2023-05.

26 Donald J. Trump, “Agenda47: President Trump Issues New Video on Ukraine Policy as the Globalist Establishment Are Committed to Endless Wars,” Campaign website, March 16, 2023, https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/9172bde9-a4e3-4024-846f-8f7fd7d06e9f/.

27 David E. Sanger, “An Outburst by Trump on NATO May Push Europe to Go It Alone,” New York Times, February 11, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/world/europe/trump-nato-analysis.html.

28 “Trump’s soft spot for authoritarian leaders,” France24, October 21, 2020, https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20201021-trump-s-soft-spot-for-authoritarian-leaders.

29 Steven Erlanger, “In Europe, Few Even Want to Talk About Trump Part 2,” New York Times, August 19, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/19/world/europe/trump-2024-election-europe.html.

30 The Prime Minister, “Livre Blanc sur la Defense [French White Book on Defense],” 1994, https://www.vie-publique.fr/files/rapport/pdf/944048700.pdf.

31 General Secretariat of the Council, “European Council conclusions,” December 19 & 20, 2013, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-217-2013-INIT/en/pdf.

32 European External Action Service, A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy, 2016, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/global-strategy-european-unions-foreign-and-security-policy_en.

33 German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act, December 2021, https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/building-european-resilience-and-capacity-act.

34 Lucia Retter et. al, European Strategic Autonomy in Defence (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2021), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1319-1.html.

35 Tara Varma, “‘We lost an opportunity to listen to you’: Why Macron is embracing Eastern Europe,” Brookings Institution, June 6, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/we-lost-an-opportunity-to-listen-to-you-why-macron-is-embracing-eastern-europe/.

36 Council of the European Union, A Strategic Compass for a stronger EU security and defence in the next decade, March 2022.

37 European Commission, “Areas of EU action,” accessed February 2024, https://commission.europa.eu/about-european-commission/what-european-commission-does/law/areas-eu-action_en#:~:text=justice%20and%20fundamental%20rights,research%20and%20space.

38 Liana Fix, “U.S. Leadership on Ukraine Is Increasing European Dependence,” World Politics Review, February 6, 2023, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-europe-war-us-ukraine-aid-nato-biden-putin/; US Department of State, “Fact Sheet: U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine,” April 2023.

39 Sophia Besch and Max Bergmann, “Why European defense still depends on America,” Foreign Affairs, March 7, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-european-defense-still-depends-america.

40 Camille Brugier and Pierre Haroche, “2027: the year of European strategic autonomy,” Le Groupe d’Etudes Géopolitiques, April 7, 2023, https://geopolitique.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Note-de-travail-10-avril-EN-1.pdf.

41 European Commission, “EU-China outlook,” March 12, 2019.

42 EUR-Lex, Access to the European Law, “Mutual defence clause,” accessed October 24, 2023, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/mutual-defence-clause.html.

43 Tara Varma, “Europe and NATO are stepping up on Ukraine,” Brookings Institution, February 2, 2024, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europe-and-nato-are-stepping-up-on-ukraine/.

44 “The European Commission and the European Investment Fund join forces to boost investment in defence innovation through the Defence Equity Facility,” European Investment Fund, January 12, 2024, https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/european-commission-and-european-investment-fund-join-forces-boost-investment-defence-innovation-2024-01-12_en.

45 Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, Tara Varma, Nick Witney, “Eyes tight shut: European attitudes towards nuclear deterrence,” European Council on Foreign Relations, December 19, 2018, https://ecfr.eu/special/eyes_tight_shut_european_attitudes_towards_nuclear_deterrence/.

46 Peter Ricketts, “France and the UK: A Decade of the Lancaster House Treaties,” Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, November 2, 2020, https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/france-and-uk-decade-lancaster-house-treaties.