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Notes
1 René Pfister, Britta Sandberg, and Christoph Schult, “A European Bomb: Debate over Nuclear Deterrence Heats Up in the EU,” SPIEGEL International, April 14, 2020, https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-european-bomb-debate-over-nuclear-deterrence-heats-up-in-the-eu-a-88ab0869-67c6-4bc9-bdff-75c32340b56c.
2 Gerald F. Seib, “Can Republicans Find Consensus on Foreign Policy? The GOP Must Reconcile Its New Populism and Old Internationalism,” Foreign Affairs, January 9, 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/can-republicans-find-consensus-foreign-policy.
3 Patricia Zengerle, “US House speaker resists Ukraine, Israel bill,” Reuters, February 14, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-speaker-resists-ukraine-israel-bill-2024-02-14/.
4 Jones Hayden, Myah Ward, and Jan Cienski, “Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up,” POLITICO, February 11, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-members-that-dont-pay-enough/.
5 Graham Allison, “Trump Is Already Reshaping Geopolitics: How U.S. Allies and Adversaries Are Responding to the Chance of His Return,” Foreign Affairs, January 16, 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-already-reshaping-geopolitics.
6 David Aaronovitch, “The ‘ultimate negotiator’: how a Trump victory in 2024 would impact America’s allies,” BBC Radio 4 The Briefing Room, October 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/13tZLHXD4R3kYHVbSXWPhl7/the-ultimate-negotiator-how-a-trump-victory-in-2024-would-impact-america-s-allies.
7 Center for Global Security Research Study Group, China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer: Implications for U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Strategy (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Spring 2023), 8.
8 Artur Kacprzyk, NATO Nuclear Adaptation: Rationales for Expanding the Force Posture in Europe (Warsaw: The Polish Institute of International Affairs, November 2023).
9 The White House, “Washington Declaration,” April 26, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/26/washington-declaration-2/; for more information see Ankit Panda, “The Washington Declaration Is a Software Upgrade for the U.S.-South Korea Alliance,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Commentary, May 1, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/01/washington-declaration-is-software-upgrade-for-u.s.-south-korea-alliance-pub-89648.
10 Alexander K. Bollfrass and Stephen Herzog, “The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order,” Survival 64, no. 4 (2022): 7, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2103255; also see Anna Clara Arndt, Liviu Horovitz, and Michal Onderco, “Russia’s Failed Nuclear Coercion Against Ukraine,” Washington Quarterly 46, no 3 (2023): 167-184, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2259665; Liviu Horovitz and Martha Stolze, “Nuclear rhetoric and escalation management in Russia’s war against Ukraine: A chronology,” SWP Working Paper, no. 2 (2023).
11 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, and Eliana Reynolds, “Russian nuclear weapons, 2023,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 79, no. 3 (2023): 174, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2023.2202542.
12 John J. Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security 15, no. 2 (1990): 5-56; Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Joseph Rodgers, and Reja Younis, Alternative Nuclear Futures Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, May 2023).
13 E.g., Kacprzyk, NATO Nuclear Adaptation.
14 United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, “Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons,” https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/tpnw/; Also see Paul Meyer, “Folding the Umbrella: Nuclear Allies, the NPT and the Ban Treaty,” APLN & Toda Peace Institute Policy Brief, no. 58, http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/; and Tom Sauer, “Power and Nuclear Weapons: The Case of the European Union,” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 3, no. 1 (2020): 41-59, https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2020.1764260.
15 Liviu Horovitz and Lydia Wachs, “France’s Nuclear Weapons and Europe,” SWP Comment, no. 15 (2023): 5, http://doi.org/10.18449/2023C15.
16 For Trump’s statement see “Trump says NATO is obsolete but still ‘very important to me,'” Reuters, January 16, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14Z0YP/; for the NPR see: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review, February 2018 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2018).
17 Saraphin Dhanani & Tyler McBrien, “A Tale of Two Strategies: Comparing the Biden and Trump National Security Strategies,” Lawfare, November 4, 2022, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/tale-two-strategies-comparing-biden-and-trump-national-security-strategies.
18 Jim Garamone, “President Biden Tells World: 'America Is Back',” U.S. Department of Defense, February 19, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2509091/president-biden-tells-world-america-is-back/#:~:text=%22I%20speak%20today%20as%20president,forward%20together%2C%22%20he%20said.
19 Dick Zandee, “Moet een zelfredzaam Europa een kernmacht zijn?,” Clingendael Spectator, March 8, 2022, https://spectator.clingendael.org/nl/publicatie/moet-een-zelfredzaam-europa-een-kernmacht-zijn?msclkid=dbf0d315bbd611eca49296d57562997f.
20 Tim Sweijs and Michael J. Mazarr, “Mind the Middle Powers,” War on the Rocks, April 4, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/mind-the-middle-powers/.
21 Hanna Notte, “Russia’s Axis of the Sanctioned: Moscow Is Bringing Washington’s Enemies Together,” Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-axis-sanctioned.
22 Robert S. Litwak, Tripolar Instability: Nuclear Competition Among the United States, Russia, and China (Washington, DC: Wilson Center, 2023), 85; Robert Litwak, “A Tripolar Nuclear World: Challenges to Strategic Stability,” Washington Quarterly 46, no. 4 (2023): 143-158, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2286790.
23 Tom Sauer, “Power and Nuclear Weapons.”
24 Andrei Kolesnikov, “Did Kennan Foresee Putin? What the Diplomat Got Right About Russia and the West,” Foreign Affairs, September 20, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/did-kennan-foresee-putin.
25 Lawrence Freedman and Jeffrey Michaels, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy New, Updated and Completely Revised (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019), 347.
26 Caitlin Talmadge, “Multipolar Deterrence in the Emerging Nuclear Era,” in The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age, eds. V. Narang and S. D. Sagan (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2022), 37-38.
27 Michal Onderco, Michal Smetana, and Tom W. Etienne, “Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post-Ukraine,” Global Policy 14 (2023): 9, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13179.
28 Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, Tara Varma, and Nick Witney, “Eyes tight shut: European attitudes towards nuclear deterrence,” European Council on Foreign Relations, December 19, 2018, https://ecfr.eu/special/eyes_tight_shut_european_attitudes_towards_nuclear_deterrence/#about-the-authors.
29 Barbara Kunz, “Switching Umbrellas in Berlin? The Implications of Franco-German Nuclear Cooperation,” Washington Quarterly 43, no. 3 (2020): 65, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2020.1814007.
30 Oliver Meier, “Why Germany won’t build its own nuclear weapons and remains skeptical of a Eurodeterrent,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 76, no. 2 (2020): 81, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2020.1728967.
31 Barry R. Posen, “Europe Can Defend Itself,” Survival 62, no. 6 (2021): 8, 17, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1851080.
32 Kunz, “Switching Umbrellas in Berlin?,” 63.
33 Élysée, “Speech of the President of the Republic on the Defense and Deterrence Strategy,” February 7, 2020, https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2020/02/07/speech-of-the-president-of-the-republic-on-the-defense-and-deterrence-strategy.
34 Pfister et al., “A European Bomb.”
35 Jakob Hanke Vela and Nicolas Camut, “As Trump looms, top EU politician calls for European nuclear deterrent,” POLITICO, January 25, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-nuclear-warfare-detterence-manfred-weber-vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-war/.
36 Alexander Marrow and Kevin Liffey, “Putin and Orban reaffirm Russian-Hungarian ties amid international strains,” Reuters, October 17, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-holds-talks-with-hungarys-orban-china-2023-10-17/.
37 Margriet Drent, “European strategic autonomy: Going it alone?,” Clingendael Policy Brief, (2018): 7.
38 Bruno Tertrais, “Will Europe get its own bomb?,” Washington Quarterly 42, no. 2 (2019): 59, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2019.1621651.
39 Horovitz and Wachs, “France’s Nuclear Weapons and Europe,” 3.
40 Tertrais, “Will Europe get its own bomb?,” 59.
41 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, “Nuclear weapons sharing, 2023,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 79, no. 6 (2023): 393-406, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2023.2266944.
42 Kunz, “Switching Umbrellas in Berlin?,” 63-64.
43 Ursula Jasper and Clara Portela, “EU Defence Integration and Nuclear Weapons: A Common Deterrent for Europe?,” Security Dialogue 14, no. 2 (2010): 159.
44 Tertrais, “Will Europe get its own bomb?,” 60.
45 United Nations, Treaty Series: Treaties and international agreements registered or filed and recorded with the Secretariat of the United Nations (New York: 1974), 273, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20729/v729.pdf.
46 United Nations, Treaty Series, 286.
47 Ursula Jasper and Clara Portela, “EU Defence Integration and Nuclear Weapons,” 159.
48 Kristensen, Korda, and Reynolds, “Russian nuclear weapons, 2023,” 175.
49 Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Matters, Nuclear Matters Handbook 2016 (US Department of Defense, 2016), 17.
50 William Alberque, “Russian Military Thought and Doctrine Related to Non- strategic Nuclear Weapons: Change and Continuity,” The International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2024, 4, https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/01/iiss_russian-military-thought-and-doctrine-related-to-non-strategic-nuclear-weapons_012024.pdf.
51 Kristensen, Korda, and Reynolds, “Russian nuclear weapons, 2023,” 174.
52 Bollfrass and Herzog, “The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order,” 7.
53 Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future,” 7.
54 Ibid., 7-8.
55 Alexander Mattelaer, “Rediscovering geography in NATO defence planning,” Defence Studies 18, no. 3 (2018): 350, 351, https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2018.1497446.
56 Center for Global Security Research Study Group, China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer, 8.
57 NATO, “Vilnius Summit Communiqué: Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius 11 July 2023,” July 11, 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm.
58 Lawrence Freedman, “Chapter Four: Europe and Deterrence,” in Nuclear Weapons: a New Great Debate, ed. B. Schmitt (Paris: Institute for Security Studies Western European Union, 2001), 84.