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Ending Today's Wars

Backstopping Ukraine’s Long-Term Security: An Alternative to NATO Membership

 

Notes

1 New York Times and Office of the President of Russia, “Putin Vows to ‘Actively Defend’ Russians Living Abroad,” Atlantic Council, July 2, 2014, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/putin-vows-to-actively-defend-russians-living-abroad.

2 See for example, The White House, “Remarks by President Biden on Supporting Ukraine, Defending Democratic Values, and Taking Action to Address Global Challenges,” July 12, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/07/12/remarks-by-president-biden-on-supporting-ukraine-defending-democratic-values-and-taking-action-to-address-global-challenges-vilnius-lithuania/.

3 See Michael O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmuller, David Wessel, Alejandra Rocha, Sophie Roehse, and Mallika Yadwad, “Ukraine Index: Tracking Developments in the Ukraine War,” Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., February 20, 2024, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index-tracking-developments-in-the-ukraine-war; Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024,” Institute for the Study of War, February 29, 2024, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024.

4 Lynn Sweet, “Donald Trump says he can stop Ukraine war in 24 hours, evokes bogus claim on curbing Chicago crime in a day,” Chicago Sun-Times, January 21, 2024, https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2024/1/21/24046304/donald-trump-2024-gop-presidential-race-election-joe-biden-republican-chicago-crime-ukraine-violence.

5 Toluse Olorunnipa, Emily Rauhala, Meryl Kornfield, and Michael Birnbaum, “Zelensky Slams NATO for Omitting a Timeline for Ukraine to Join,” Washington Post, July 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/11/zelensky-nato-ukraine-membership-timeline.

6 Jeremy Herb, “Biden says war with Russia must end before NATO can consider membership for Ukraine,” CNN, July 9, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/09/politics/joe-biden-ukraine-nato-russia-cnntv/index.html.

7 Samuel Charap and Timothy Colton, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (Oxon: Routledge, 2017), 67-68.

8 M.E. Sarotte, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2021).

9 William J. Burns, The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and The Case for Its Renewal (New York: Random House, 2019), 233.

10 Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Michael Birnbaum, “Inside Donald Trump’s Secret Long-Shot Plan to End the War in Ukraine,” Washington Post, April 7, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/.

11 Chrystia Freeland, “Russia, Ukraine, To Divide Fleet,” Washington Post, June 23, 1992, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/06/24/russia-ukraine-to-divide-fleet/02262a99-47c8-419c-b39c-a29446e77860/.

12 United Nations,” “Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” December 5, 1994, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf; see Steven Pifer, “Why Care about Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum?” Brookings Institution, December 5, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-care-about-ukraine-and-the-budapest-memorandum.

13 United Nations, Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, Kiev, 31 May 1999,” https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdfhttps://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52240.pdf

14 United Nations, “Annex I to the letter dated 24 February 2015 from the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council,” https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/UA_140905_MinskCeasfire_en.pdf.

15 United Nations Security Council, “Resolution 2202 (2015),” February 17, 2015, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf.

16 Kal Raustiala, The Absolutely Indispensable Man (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2023), Chapter 14.

17 Barbara Walter, Lise Howard and V. Page Fortna, “The Extraordinary Relationship between Peacekeeping and Peace.” British Journal of Political Science 51, no. 4 (2021): 1705-1722.

18 Ibid.

19 It is worth remembering the deliberately vague, even tortured, syntax of Article V in this regard: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” See North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “Collective Defence and Article V,” Brussels, Belgium, July 4, 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm.

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