Mapping Homicide Clusters across the United States Using County Level Data, 2004-2012 with Comparisons to Earlier Studies

ABSTRACT

Mapping crime can help identify geographic areas where crime clusters, and potentially help reveal factors that affect the production of crime at the structural level. Such information could have useful policy purposes. This study examines county-level homicide clusters in the US (2004–2012), and compares them to results from prior studies. The analysis employs SaTScan^TM covariate adjustments based on epidemiological mapping algorithms used in disease surveillance. Though homicide rates in the USA have been decreasing long term, significant homicide clusters were identified for several geographic regions adjusting for median age, percent white, and percent living in poverty. Over time, homicide clusters remain somewhat stable, but change in terms of geographic scope. We also compare our maps to those derived by Baller et al.to show changes in homicide clusters in the US since 1960.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Raid Amin

Raid Amin is a Distinguished University Professor in the Mathematics and Statistics Department at the University of West Florida. He has numerous research interests including statistical process control and spatial cluster analysis on a variety of variables, such as crimes, cancer counts and rates, sexual offenders and predators. Amin’s other research has ranged from the study of human-shark interaction to student learning styles to statistical consulting for clinical trials in medical research. His research has been published in many journals including Technometrics, Journal of Quality Technology, Journal of Environment and Ecology, Animal Cognition, Statistics and Public Policy, Journal of Coastal Research, and Sequential Analysis. Amin is also a statistical consultant for medical training programs at two Pensacola healthcare organizations. He works with resident physicians and resident pharmacists in their residency projects. Dr. Amin’s Google Scholar profile: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QZnHYuoAAAAJ&hl=en

Hongbo Yang

Hongbo Yang is currently an analyst at Consumer Club, Inc. based in Dallas. He graduated from University of Texas at Dallas with a master’s degree in statistics and research interests in statistical and machine learning, cluster analysis, modeling and forecasting. Hongbo also earned a master’s degree in mathematical sciences at University of West Florida, where he started research on spatial cluster analysis. After graduation, he has been working with his team to conduct rigorous analysis to maximize revenue for the company by bring data strategies and innovative ideas. His goal is to apply new ideas to statistical problems in different areas.

Michael J. Lynch

Michael J. Lynch is professor of criminology, University of South Florida. His research focuses primarily on green criminology, corporate crime and its control, environmental sociology and ecological Marxism. His recent books include: Green Criminology: Crime, Justice and the Environment (University of California Press, 2017) and Quantitative Studies in Green and Conservation Criminology (Routledge, 2019).