The Politics of Infrastructural Projects: A Case for Evidence-Based Policymaking

Abstract

Many developing countries currently face tightening fiscal constraints as a result of the global financial crisis and associated reduction in both credit and demand. Policymarkers therefore have less fiscal space within which to undertake projects, so the opportunity cost of any misallocation of resources will be correspondingly higher. There is therefore an increasing need to rely more on evidence-based policymaking (EBPM). The is particularly so for large infrastructural projects, as these tend to be costly, and especially for transportation projects as these are particularly prone to result in sub-optimal outcomes. This paper examines the policy process for the implementation of the Jamaican Highway 2000, one of the largest and most costly infrastructure projects in Jamaica in recent years. A number of primary and secondary data sources were explored to ascertain the extent to which the decision to implement the project reflects a case for evidence-based decision-making in practice. This made it clear that the decision was taken at least partly on political grounds, largely in the absence of any supportive evidence, and on the basis of over-optimistic and unrealistic assumptions, and that this has created a number of serious, long-term challenges for Jamaica.

Keywords:

• evidence-based policy making
• transportation
• infrastructure
• policy process
• policy advice

Notes

¹As quoted by Sanderson (2006).

² Dunleavy (1995) defines policy disasters as ‘generally construed to mean significant and substantially costly failures of commission or omission by government … namely that the mistakes made are eminently foreseeable—but decision-markers systematically choose to ignore an abundance of critical or warning voices in order to persevere with their chosen policy.’

³http://havanajournal.com/travel/entry/bahamas-jamaica-and-caymanastourism-may-suffer-after-end-of-us-cuba-embargo/

⁴Economic and Social Survey Jamaica (2007).

⁵National Industrial Policy: A Strategic Plan for Growth and Development, April 25, 1996.

⁶ World Bank (2003).

⁷Danielson (2004).

⁸Stone (1994), a clientelistic system is one whereby ‘party leaders catered to the needs of hard core party supporters through state patronage (jobs, contracts, benefits, favours, houses etc.)’.

⁹Figures accessed from the National Road Constructing and Operating (NROCC) http://www.mtw.gov.jm/whti/presentations/h2k_nrocc.pdf

¹⁰Jamaica Survey of Living Condition (2006): A Joint Publication of the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica.

¹¹Preliminary Draft, ‘Portmore to Clarendon Park - Highway 200 Development Plan 2004–2025’. Planning Institute of Jamaica, September 20, 2004.

¹²Steps were taken to acquire cabinet submissions on the Highway 2000 project. Under the access information act, however, such documents are not accessible to the public until 30 years after the date of submission.

¹³ Macpherson (1993) acknowledges that the transportation network should be flexible for future expansion.

¹⁴Projected traffic count from Spanish Town to May Pen was 20,000 for 1996, and 22,000 for 2004. Highway 2000 Project: Final Report of a Pre-feasibility Study by Dessau International, Canada commissioned January 1997.

¹⁵Ministry of Transport and Works 2002–2004 Highlights.

¹⁶Highway 2000 Project: Final Report of a Pre-feasibility Study by Dessau International, Canada commissioned January 1997.

¹⁷Highway 2000 Project: Preliminary Design Phase, Economic Cost-Benefit Analysis Dessau International, Canada, July 2000.

¹⁸‘Scale Down Highway 2000’ The Gleaner, Saturday, September 8, 2001.

¹⁹‘Railway Talks to Continue in February’ The Gleaner, Friday, January 16, 2004.

²⁰Environmental Technical and Analytical Services (1998).

²¹In the hours between 1:00a.m and 4:00a.m flows on average is less than 50 vehicles per hour. Estimates provided by the Ministry of Transportation and Works.