Using Exploratory Scenarios in Planning Practice

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Despite growing interest by practitioners in using exploratory scenarios within urban planning practice, there are few detailed guidelines for how to do this. Through the discussion of five case examples, we illustrate different approaches to linking exploratory scenarios to different planning contexts. We conclude by observing that to directly inform a plan, regardless of the specific approach taken, exploratory scenarios in urban planning must incorporate stakeholder values and not only rely on expert judgment and analysis.

Takeaway for practice: Exploratory scenarios are effective for analyzing uncertainty within a planning process. However, exploratory scenarios can be incorporated into planning practice in different ways, ranging from workshops among experts that aim to cultivate general learning to complex projects that result in highly detailed scenarios and recommendations for plans. Practitioners can draw on the cases we present to inspire planning methods for particular projects, taking into account specific contexts and goals.

Keywords:

• case research
• planning methods
• reflective practice
• scenario planning
• uncertainty

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the professionals who shared their experiences and insights with us about the cases.

DECLARATION OF INTEREST STATEMENT

As described in the text, Uri Avin was personally involved in three of the cases as a practitioner.

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL

Supplemental data for this article can be found on the publisher’s website.

Notes

1 Although beyond the scope of this article, our perspective is consistent with a collaborative view of practice that rejects a neat separation between the technical and normative dimensions of planning (Forester, 1989).

2 GBN included individuals with close involvement in corporate strategic planning where scenario planning was first developed, especially the pioneering scenarios created at the Shell Oil Company by Pierre Wack in the 1970s (Wack, 1985a, 1985b).

3 It should be noted that futurists have created many other ways to create scenarios that have not been adopted within urban planning (Bishop et al., 2007).

4 The modeling was not spatially explicit beyond treating the whole region as a unit of analysis. DVRPC also experimented with using the RPAT model but found it not useful for exploratory scenario analysis (Gregor, 2015).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Uri Avin

URI AVIN ([email protected]) is a research professor and deputy director at the University of Maryland’s National Center for Smart Growth and also teaches in the graduate planning program. ROBERT GOODSPEED ([email protected]) is an assistant professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan’s Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning, and author of the book Scenario Planning for Cities and Regions: Managing and Envisioning Uncertain Futures.