The Accuracy of Small-Area Population Forecasts Based On A Spatial Interaction Land-Use Modeling System

Abstract

As a result of the ISTEA and Clean Air Act legislation, more agencies are using or will be required to use spatial interaction land-use models to develop small-area (subcounty) population forecasts. Little is known about the magnitude or characteristics of the error generated from these models or in small-area forecasts in general. This case study adds to our knowledge of error in small-area forecasts by evaluating forecasts of census tract population that are developed from a spatial interaction land-use modeling system. The study also illustrates measures that can examine forecast error more comprehensively.