Validation of Simulation Models via Simultaneous Confidence Intervals

SYNOPTIC ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to present state-of-the-art and new research results on the use of simultaneous confidence intervals (and joint confidence regions) for determining the operational validity of a multivariate response simulation model of an observable system. A methodology is presented which allows the use of different types of statistical procedures and provides for a tradeoff analysis among sample sizes, confidence levels, sizes of confidence intervals (or regions), and, if desired, cost of data collection. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of mean behavior.

Key Words and Phrases:

• confidence intervals
• modeling
• operational validity
• simulation
• tradeoff analysis
• validation