Situation-Adaptive Autonomy for Time-Critical Takeoff Decisions

Abstract

This paper presents a probability model for analyzing risks in rejected takeofis (RTO) of aircraft. The human pilot usually bears full responsibility for deciding whether to continue the climbout (Go) or to abort the takeoff (No Go) upon an engine failure in the takeoff run. Making a correct Go/No Go decision is not an easy task under time-criticality, especially with uncertain information, inappropriate RTOs which end with overrun accidents are reported annually. Discussions on whether to automate the Go/No Go decision-making system, to avoid unnecessary RTOs made by the human pilot, have taken place. This paper proves that Go/No Go decision-making should neither be fully automated nor be left always to the pilot, and that authority for Go/No Go decision-making must be traded between the human pilot and the automated system in a situation-adaptive manner. This paper also proves that the human-interface of conventional warning systems is not effective for reducing RTO accidents, and that a new design of human-interface systems is necessary.

Key Words:

• Probability models
• decision making
• takeoff safety of aircraft
• human-centered automation
• credibility of alarms

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Toshiyuki Inagaki

Toshiyuhi Inagaki received his Ph.D. in systems engineering from Kyoto University in 1979. From 1979 to 1980 he was a Research Associate at the University of Houston. Since then he has been with the University of Tsukuba where he is a Professor at the Institute of Information Sciences. From 1990 to 1991 he was at the University of Kassel as a Research Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Since 1996, he has been the leader of a research project on human-centered automation at the Center for TARA (Tsukuba Advanced Research Alliance) at the University of Tsukuba. His research interests include system reliability and safety, mathematical and experimental analyses on human-machine systems, and rear soning with imperfect evidence and information. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE and a member of several professional societies.