Does sequential augmenting of simple linear heteroscedastic regression reduce variances of ordinary least-squares estimators?

Abstract

If uncorrelated random variables have a common expected value and decreasing variances, then the variance of a sample mean is decreasing with the number of observations. Unfortunately, this natural and desirable variance reduction property (VRP) by augmenting data is not automatically inherited by ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimators of parameters. We derive a new decomposition for updating the covariance matrices of the OLS which implies conditions for the OLS to have the VRP. In particular, in the case of a straight-line regression, we show that the OLS estimators of intercept and slope have the VRP if the values of the explanatory variable are increasing. This also holds true for alternating two-point experimental designs.

Keywords:

• augmented data
• design of experiment
• linear regression models
• ordinary least squares
• variance reduction

Jel Classification:

• Primary: 62J05
• Secondary: 62K99
• 15A45