Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model

Abstract

Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from –12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food.

Keywords:

• agriculture
• irrigation
• climate change
• food security
• Pakistan

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the generous funding from the United States Agency for International Development in support of this research as part of the Pakistan Strategy Support Program led by the International Food Policy Research Institute. This study was conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).