THE BLUE NILE: POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT AND ALTERNATIVES FOR MEETING FUTURE DEMANDS

ABSTRACT

Despite nearly a century of water regulation projects on the Nile Basin, today Egypt faces a genuine crisis with respect to water supply. The crisis has been brought on by a combination of drought and greatly increased usage by all riparian nations along the Nile. It is highly probable that Egypt will need to search for new sources of water, reallocate existing water supply and reduce demand simultaneously in order to stave off major water shortfalls. It is unlikely that these measures can be accomplished without both internal and external conflict. This paper describes the current state of water supply and usage in Egypt. Further we examine potential sources of conflict over water allocation decisions. Finally, the paper presents a method for evaluating alternative strategies that could be implemented by Egypt to avoid future conflict.