Analysis of the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks: new evidence from a NARDL model

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks over the period from January 1997 to December 2018. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, our results show strong evidence for the existence of an asymmetric effect of terrorist attacks on tourism receipts and the number of tourist arrivals. Interestingly, the results reveal that terrorist attacks decreases have a higher impact on tourism demand compared to the impact of terrorist attacks increases. This finding confirms the resilience of the Turkey tourism sector to exogenous shocks. The result indicates the significant role of the Turkey government in supporting the tourism sector during periods of instability. These findings offer several valuable insights for policy-makers and researchers.

KEYWORDS:

• Tourism resilience
• terrorism
• political violence
• financial crisis
• tourist demand
• NARDL
• Turkey

Acknowledgements

Open Access funding provided by the Qatar National Library.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Mixed results on this issue have been presented in the existing literature. Abadie (2006) reported that the impact of ethnic multiracialism on the terrorism risk is insignificant, whereas Bravo and Dias (2006) found a negative association between ethnic multiracialism and several terrorist incidents.

2 World Tourism Ranking.

3 https://www.ktb.gov.tr

4 https://www.start.umd.edu

5 https://www.tcmb.gov.tr

6 In the $\mathrm{NARDL}$ model the series can be a mixture between I(1) and I(0) processes. However, they should be all I(1) for the Engle and Granger (1987) approach.

7 We found no dominance of either positive or negative values of the terrorist attacks.

8 Another way to conduct the test is to test $H{}_0:{\theta }_i^{+}={\theta }_i^{-}$ for all $j=0,\dots ,p^{\ast }$ in

9 The use of the TRAMO/SEATS technique is known to outperform other existent techniques when the tourism demand series are subject to irregularities such as the existence of structural breaks (see Charfeddine & Goaied, 2019).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lanouar Charfeddine

Lanouar Charfeddine, Ph.D, is an Associate Professor in Economics in the College of Business and Economic at Qatar University. He got a Ph.D in economics, applied econometrics, and two master research in international trade, and finance and econometrics from University Paris II, France. Dr. Charfeddine research interests include the macroeconomic impact of terrorism, terrorism and tourism, innovation in tourism, entrepreneurship and financial inclusion, and energy economics. He has published more than 40 articles in peer-review journals. His research was funded by several national and international grants.

Issa Dawd

Issa Dawd, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in Accounting in the College of Business and Economic at Qatar University. He was awarded his PhD in Accounting and Finance from the University of Dundee (UK). Dr. Dawd's research interests include financial accounting/reporting, measuring corporate disclosure quality and quality, determinants of disclosure, corporate governance, international accounting standard, emerging market, financial innovation, terrorism and tourism performance, innovation in tourism and the innovation types and organisations/market performance and have published articles in international journals in these and related fields.