An Analysis of Induced Traffic Effects in China

Abstract

The theory of induced traffic postulates that new or improved roads will induce additional growth in traffic. This can occur through a variety of behavioral mechanisms including more new trips, mode shifts, route shifts, redistribution of trips and longer trips. The objective of this paper is to test whether the induced traffic effect exists in China and then to empirically derive elasticity relationships between lane-kilometers of road and vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT). In line with the data collection (from 1990 to 2010), the former elasticity models: elasticity-based model, distributed lag model and growth model are discussed. The elasticity coefficients of six areas within China including North China, East China, Southwest China, South Central China, Northeast China, and Northwest China between VKT and lane-kilometers are estimated to be 0.266~0.511. Considering time delay, the elasticity is 0.185 in the short term and 0.436 in the long term in China. In the meantime, the growth model has not been available in China. Other influencing factors, such as population and GDP are also discussed.

Acknowledgement

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50978046).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Zhao Shengchuan

Zhao Shengchuan is Professor and founding Dean of the School of Transportation and Logistics of Dalian University of Technology, China. He holds a Ph.D. in urban engineering from the University of Tokyo, Japan. Dr.Zhao was a Fulbright Scholar at Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University from 2008 to 2009. His research interests focus on travel demand modeling and urban transportation planning.

He Nan

He Nan is a PhD candidate studying travel demand analysis in the School of Transportation and Logistics, Dalian University of Technology.

Liu Ning

Liu Ning is a master's degree student studying travel demand analysis in the School of Transportation and Logistics, Dalian University of Technology.