Using Grey theory to develop a model for forecasting the demand for telecommunications

Abstract

This study applies the Grey forecasting model from Grey theory to accurately forecast Taiwanese telecommunication demand from 2004 to 2007. The analytical results show that the accuracy of the proposed forecasting model exceeds 95%. The validity of predictions using the new model is clearly high. The model estimates that cellular phone, international telephone and Internet demand will be a high growth market from 2004 to 2007, local telephone will demonstrate improved demand, and public pay-phones will display decreased market growth. The findings of this study thus provide a valuable reference for Taiwanese telecom firms in drawing up relevant marketing policies for their products.

Keywords:

• Telecommunication demand
• Grey forecasting model
• Grey theory